Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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LA-04 House election: Matt Gromlich vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
9.77%median
4%46%
Median 9.77%Middle half 7.85% – 12.15%
How the odds have moved
Median: 9.43% on Oct 19, 9.77% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 6% | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 205 | |
| At least 8% | 74% | 69¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | ||
| At least 10% | 47% | 43¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 400 | |
| At least 12% | 26% | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 810 | |
| At least 14% | 13% | 9¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 602 | |
| At least 30% | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.3K | ||
| At least 32% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.7K | ||
| At least 34% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.7K | ||
| At least 36% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.7K | ||
| At least 38% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 4.6K | ||
| At least 40% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.4K | ||
| At least 42% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 600 | ||
| At least 44% | 2% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: LA- House, Matt Gromlich
Search ›- Speaker Mike Johnson faces crowded field in La.’s District 4 raceLOUISIANA (KPLC) - For the last four years, Mike Johnson has served as Speaker of the House. Now, it’s the Speaker against the field. After Louisiana’s primaries for the House of Representatives were delayed last April following the…
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Early Voting Begins in Bossier ParishEarly voting began today, Tuesday, Oct. 20, giving Bossier Parish residents an opportunity to cast their ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Voters will decide on a number of races including U.S. Senate race, a U.S. House race, the…
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Median 45.43%Middle half 41.97% – 48.29%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions