Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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LA-02 House election: Troy Carter vote percent (1st Round)
The odds
75.17%median
68%88%
Median 75.17%Middle half 72.07% – 78%
How the odds have moved
Median: 74.92% on Oct 20, 75.17% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 70% | 86% | 82¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 2.8K | |
| At least 72% | 76% | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | ||
| At least 74% | 61% | 56¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 945 | |
| At least 76% | 43% | 38¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 1.1K | |
| At least 78% | 25% | 21¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 451 | |
| At least 80% | 12% | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 815 | |
| At least 82% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 84% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 86% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: LA- House, Troy Carter
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Quin Hillyer: As new head of Congressional Black Caucus, Rep. Troy Carter should push moderate toneWhen New Orleans Democratic Rep. Troy Carter becomes chair of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) after next month’s election, he ought to use his position to be a moderating influence in the increasingly left-wing Democratic Party. And… -
Louisiana’s Troy Carter expects to play a larger national role after the midterms. Here’s why.U.S. Rep. Troy Carter was listening intently when Bishop L. John Phoenix at Victory Christian church in New Orleans began his sermon Sunday by invoking the Bible. “Your adversaries don’t have the advantage,” Phoenix told Carter and his… - Pete Hegseth’s staff breaks historic globe used by Dwight EisenhowerOctober 23, 2026 - 12.05am A historic globe used by General Dwight Eisenhower during World War II was reportedly broken as Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s staff tried to move it into his office. The massive globe suffered a massive crack…
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Black voter turnout higher than normal for Louisiana’s first day of early votingBlack voters made up a larger share of participants on Louisiana's first day of early voting than they have in almost every other election over the past 18 years, making Democrats cautiously optimistic about the U.S. Senate race. Secretary… -
House Democrats plan a first 100-days agenda if they sweep to power in midterm elections4:21 PM / Wednesday October 21, 2026 WASHINGTON — House Democrats are preparing an ambitious 100-days agenda focused on delivering their campaign promises — making life more affordable and conducting vast oversight of the Trump… -
Control of Congress at stake as early voting begins in LouisianaNEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - At New Orleans City Hall, people took advantage of the first day of early voting for the Nov. 3 election. “I would love to have a huge turnout,” said Lisa Manning Bridges, New Orleans Registrar of Voters. There are two… -
CHATTER: Early voting begins today!Jeremy Alford is managing editor of LaPolitics Weekly, The Tracker and Beltway Beat, Louisiana’s leading trade publications for elected officials, campaign professionals and donors. He’s also a regular contributor to The New York Times and… -
Fedorchak highlights rural hospital support during Elgin, Bowman visitsBOWMAN, N.D. — Congresswoman Julie Fedorchak highlighted legislation to extend a rural hospital program and discussed workforce and reimbursement challenges during roundtables in Elgin and Bowman. The North Dakota Republican met with… -
St. James Parish Secures $15.4 Million for Road, Infrastructure ProjectsPublished 12:28 pm Tuesday, October 20, 2026 St. James Parish has secured $15.4 million in state surplus and capital outlay funding for road improvements and other infrastructure projects during the 2026 Regular Legislative Session. The… -
NO.carterreelect.102026.003.jpgThe Shreveport-Bossier City Advocate Louisianaâs Troy Carter expects to play a larger national role after the midterms. Hereâs why. U.S. Rep. Troy Carter was listening intently when Bishop L. John Phoenix at Victory Christian church in… -
Louisiana’s Troy Carter proposes $100M annual FEMA grants to prepare colleges for emergenciesU.S. Congressman Troy Carter talks about voting rights and redistricting during a town hall meeting at the Georges Auditorium on the Dillard University campus in New Orleans, Monday, May 11, 2026. U.S. Rep. Troy Carter has introduced a… -
Congressman Flood introduces SAF Information ActU.S Representative Mike Flood (R) of Nebraska joined Louisiana’s Troy Carter (D) Friday in support of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Information Act. They say it’s designed to give stakeholders more clarity into how production is…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions