Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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KY-06 House election: Ralph Alvarado vote percent
The odds
48.09%median
44%64%
Median 48.09%Middle half 46.04% – 50.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: 48.79% on Oct 24, 48.09% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46% | 76% | ▼ 5 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | |
| At least 48% | 51% | ▼ 9 | 48¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 100 |
| At least 50% | 30% | ▼ 6 | 25¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | |
| At least 52% | 13% | ▼ 4 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | |
| At least 54% | 5% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.4K |
| At least 56% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | $20.00 | ||
| At least 58% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 60% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 62% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: KY- House, Ralph Alvarado
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Not a ‘David and Goliath race’: Dems challenge long-standing Republicans in KY House racesDemocratic Congressional Candidate John Drew Williams speaks on Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026, at the annual St. Jerome Picnic in Fancy Farm, Ky. Democratic Congressional Candidate John Drew Williams speaks on Saturday, Aug. 1, 2026, at the… -
Alvarado distances himself from Trump on Iran war, tariffs in KY House debate with DemboThe candidates for Central Kentucky's 6th Congressional District held their only debate of the campaign Thursday night, and the surprise of the evening was Republican Ralph Alvarado putting some daylight between himself and Republican… -
Kentucky 6th Congressional District debate: Where Ralph Alvarado, Zach Dembo stand on key issuesLEXINGTON, Ky. (FOX 56) — With Kentucky's 6th Congressional District preparing to elect a new representative for the first time in more than a decade, Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Dr. Ralph Alvarado laid out sharply different visions… -
Billionaire with Epstein ties emerges as top Dem donor bankrolling ads weaponizing disgraced financier’s filesRepublican Ralph Alvarado slams the billionaire's ties to Jeffrey Epstein and calls on Democratic opponent Zach Dembo to disavow the financial support. Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn who has faced scrutiny over his… -
The Kentucky Canary in the Coal Mine for RepublicansOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT When you think of Kentucky, you probably think of horse racing and bourbon. On election night, the state’s 6th Congressional District will be one of the first competitive House races out of the gate, and the… -
Small Bites: TARC to offer free rides to polls on Election DayMuch like yesterday, Louisville residents can expect a sunny day with a high near 72 degrees, according to the latest forecast by the National Weather Service in Louisville. Night will be mostly clear with a low around 45 degrees. Today’s… -
Kentucky's 6th District race is now a 'toss up' between Alvarado, DemboAccording to political analysts from the Cook Political Report, the district is now a "toss up" between Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado and Democratic nominee Zach Dembo. The district, which was once led by a Democrat, has been held by… -
Government corruption tops voter concerns ahead of Nov. 3 midterms: CNBC surveyEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Dembo and Alvarado, state representative candidates set to face off in Estill County debatePictured, left to right, are Republican House candidate Ralph Alvarado and Democratic House candidate Zach Dembo. Lincoln Wilburn, a junior at Estill County High School, will be moderating an upcoming debate between several congressional… -
Trump Tempts Kentucky Voters With Conditional $100 Million Pharmaceutical Investment PlanHIGHLAND HEIGHTS, Ky.—President Donald Trump announced plans for the Department of War to invest $100 million to support a pharmaceutical company, but the offer is conditional on Republican victories in the midterm elections next month… -
Alvarado, Dembo clash on affordability, housing and 'Big Beautiful Bill' in Lexington debate for Barr's seatLEXINGTON, Ky. (LEX NEWS) — The two candidates competing to succeed Rep. Andy Barr in Congress faced off in Lexington, where they were pressed on how Congress should address some of the biggest issues facing Central Kentucky. Republican… - Mailers paid for by Kentucky Democratic Party highlight 6th district independent candidateWASHINGTON — At first glance, two mailers sent to residents of central Kentucky’s sixth congressional district appear to attack both independent candidate Jay Bowman and Republican candidate Ralph Alvarado. The flyers refer to Bowman and…
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15.83%median
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45.8%median
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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
10.45%median
0%16%
Median 10.45%Middle half 8.22% – 13.31%
Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.67%median
7%40%
Median 13.67%Middle half 10.39% – 17.39%
Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
45.5%median
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Median 45.5%Middle half 42.33% – 48.36%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions