Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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IL-16 House election: Darin LaHood vote percent
The odds
58.45%median
48%68%
Median 58.45%Middle half 55.79% – 61.19%
How the odds have moved
Median: 59.19% on Oct 20, 58.45% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 96% | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.6K | |
| At least 52% | 95% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 200 |
| At least 54% | 88% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 1.1K |
| At least 56% | 74% | ▲ 1 | 69¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 1.4K |
| At least 58% | 55% | ▲ 1 | 50¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 200 |
| At least 60% | 35% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | |
| At least 62% | 19% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | |
| At least 64% | 8% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | |
| At least 66% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IL- House, Darin LaHood
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Trump urges Illinois Republicans to vote by mail, endorses Darren Bailey but skips Senate nominee Don TracyPresident Donald Trump took to social media Thursday night with an Illinois-focused post that was notable for what it didn’t include: invective-laced attacks on Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Instead, the… - Google In-House Lobbying Falls to $3.23M in Ad-Tech QuarterGoogle's in-house lobbying fell to $3.23M in Q3 2026 as the DOJ won ad-tech remedies. Learn which issues the filing covers and why it matters to advertisers. Google In-House Lobbying Falls to $3.23M in Ad-Tech Quarter Google Client…
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Illinois considering new state holiday for Ulysses S. GrantIllinois House Minority Leader Tony McCombie is seeking to establish an annual Ulysses S. Grant Day to recognize the former president’s ties to Illinois and his role in American history. Visitors got the chance to meet the 16th president… -
Pritzker reports over $9M in tax returns, not including blind trustSPRINGFIELD — Gov. JB Pritzker and First Lady MK Pritzker made more than $9 million in adjusted gross income in 2025, according to tax summaries released by his campaign Thursday. Rivian launches new EV model in Illinois, Governor praises… -
‘Partial win for customers’: ICC approves $82 million rate hike for NicorCHICAGO — The Illinois Commerce Commission approved an $82 million rate hike on Thursday. The amount was negotiated between Nicor Gas and the attorney general’s office as part of a settlement that reduced the company’s original request by… - Who is Neville Roy Singham? How his China-Linked left-wing funding network extends to Delhi protests amid US probeShanghai-based businessman Neville Roy Singham’s funding networks have drawn attention for their links to left-wing media and advocacy groups covering protests in Delhi and promoting Chinese Communist Party narratives. On October 13, US…
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GOP super PAC shifts money from Miller-MeeksU.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, right, and other House Republicans including Illinois U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood, left, joined by Iowa U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, center, for a rally in Davenport Friday, less than a month before the… -
Central Illinois speaks up: Letters to the editor for the week of Oct. 16, 2026Our weekly round-up of letters published in the Pantagraph. On November 3, voters in the 16th Congressional District have a choice to elect Paul Nolley, someone who will actually work for all of his constituents, in contrast to the… -
Clergy could opt back into Social Security if Trump signs billA bill sent to President Trump would allow eligible members of clergy to opt into having Social Security tax reductions. Clergy who have opted out of Social Security taxes may have a one-time chance to opt back in if President Donald Trump… -
Election 2026: Bloomington-Normal voter guide, races and resultsFrom local ballot questions to congressional and statewide contests, The Pantagraph is following the races and issues that matter to voters in Bloomington-Normal and McLean County ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, general election. Follow The… -
LaHood, Nolley offer competing plans to address rising costs in 16th District raceRepublican incumbent Darin LaHood and Democrat Paul Nolley identify the cost of living as a top concern but offer different approaches to health care, infrastructure, tariffs, taxes and federal debt. Javascript is required to use this… -
Peoria weighs allowing drive-thru cannabis salesPEORIA — City officials are set to look into a measure that could allow drive-thru cannabis sales in Peoria. Bailey has shifted his strategy by softening his tone, enlisting a Cook County running mate, and focusing more on the Chicago area…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions