Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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HI-01 House election: Adriel Lam vote percent
The odds
27.86%median
18%38%
Median 27.86%Middle half 25.5% – 30.2%
How the odds have moved
Median: 26.71% on Oct 19, 27.86% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 22% | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 24% | 89% | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 26% | 71% | 66¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | ||
| At least 28% | 49% | 44¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 1.5K | |
| At least 30% | 27% | 22¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 200 | |
| At least 32% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| At least 34% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| At least 36% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: HI- House, Adriel Lam
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Hawaii incumbents face longshot challengers in Congressional racesTuesday, October 20, 2026 81° Today's Paper Today • Updated 9:30 a.m. STAR-ADVERTISER / JULY 8 GOP congressional candidate Adriel Lam hands out stickers to participants during a candidate fair at Lanakila Multi-Purpose Senior Center in… -
Hawaiʻi’s Ed Case Wants Dems To Take On Trump — CautiouslyCoverage of Hawaiʻi’s 2026 elections All but assured another term, the congressman is campaigning and plotting a future where Democrats “come up with actual solutions.” U.S. Rep. Ed Case might be a shoo-in for reelection come Nov. 3, but…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions