Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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FL-26 House election: Mario Díaz-Balart vote percent
The odds
53.86%median
46%66%
Median 53.86%Middle half 51% – 56.2%
How the odds have moved
Median: 54.42% on Oct 19, 53.86% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 48% | 94% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | |
| At least 50% | 81% | ▼ 2 | 78¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | |
| At least 52% | 70% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 213 |
| At least 54% | 49% | ▲ 1 | 44¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 401 |
| At least 56% | 27% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 1.2K |
| At least 58% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 605 | |
| At least 60% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 200 | ||
| At least 62% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | 200 | ||
| At least 64% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FL- House, Mario Díaz-Balart
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Mario Díaz-Balart Receives Champion of Freedom Democracy AwardThe National Endowment for Democracy (NED) awarded Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart (R-Fla.) the 2026 Champion of Freedom Democracy Award at Miami's historic Freedom Tower. “The award recognizes his dedication to human rights, steadfast… -
Mario Díaz-Balart Honored with NED Award in Miami, Advocates for Freedom FightersThursday, October 22, 2026 by Claire Jimenez On Wednesday, Cuban-American Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart was awarded the Champion of Freedom Democracy Award 2026 by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) at a ceremony held at Miami's… -
NED to Present Champion of Freedom Democracy Award to U.S. Representative Mario Díaz-Balart in MiamiWashington, D.C. – The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) will present U.S. Representative Mario Díaz-Balart with the 2026 Champion of Freedom Democracy Award at a ceremony held at Miami’s Freedom Tower on October 21. The award… -
FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents. -
Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 10.18.26Halloween is coming up, landing just days before the Nov. 3 election. And in Florida politics, plenty of people have been in costume for weeks. Byron Donalds is dressed as a candidate who’s never heard of Donald Trump. His campaign quietly… -
Get-Out-the-Vote rallies sprout up around South Florida with early voting underwayWith the Nov. 3 election near and early voting underway in South Florida, candidates from both major parties along with voter mobilization groups are rallying voters to get to the polls. Salazar leads rally for Republicans in Miami-Dade On… -
‘Complete and total’: Carlos Giménez endorses Alex Rizo for SD 39Alex Rizo now has two of Miami-Dade County’s three Republican members of Congress behind his bid for Senate District 39. U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez, who served as Miami-Dade County Mayor from 2011 to 2020 before winning his House seat, is… -
Democrat runs to unseat 20-year Republican incumbent in 26th Congressional DistrictWPLG Local 10 â Democratic candidate Nicole Locklin is running to unseat 20-year Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart in Floridaâs 26th Congressional District on the Nov Locklin, 38, is running after state redistricting eliminated an… -
ABC Florida East Coast Announces 2026 General Election EndorsementsABC-FEC endorses candidates across Brevard, Indian River, Martin, St. Lucie, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties COCONUT CREEK, Fla. — Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast (ABC-FEC) has announced its endorsements… -
Mario Diaz-Balart Labels Certain Immigration Raids as "Excessive" Amid Campaign in Hialeah and DoralFriday, October 16, 2026 by Richard Morales As part of his campaign for the upcoming midterm elections on November 3, Diaz-Balart expressed support for legislation that would allow individual case reviews for undocumented immigrants from… -
Delegation for 10.16.26: Guard shortage — Trump returns — diesel diplomacy — party lines — AI deceptionAfter another powerful hurricane hit the state, members of Florida’s congressional delegation say the need for more National Guardsmen in Florida is clearer than ever. Sen. Ashley Moody and Rep. Vern Buchanan led a bicameral letter to War… - Díaz-Balart labels part of the immigration raids as an "exaggeration" amidst the campaign for the Hialeah and Doral districtFriday, October 16, 2026 - 2:48 PM The Republican Cuban-American congressman Mario Díaz-Balart defends the measures to secure the border, but admits that some of the immigration control operations implemented afterwards were an…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions