Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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FL-16 House election: Kelly Kirschner vote percent
The odds
46.39%median
36%56%
Median 46.39%Middle half 43.5% – 49.4%
How the odds have moved
Median: 44.76% on Oct 19, 46.39% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 40% | 95% | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 42% | 86% | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | ||
| At least 44% | 72% | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | ||
| At least 46% | 54% | 49¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | ||
| At least 48% | 36% | 31¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | ||
| At least 50% | 21% | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 113 | |
| At least 52% | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | ||
| At least 54% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FL- House, Kelly Kirschner
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FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents. -
Foundations PAC puts ‘Trusted’ on the air for Sydney Gruters in CD 16Foundations PAC has launched “Trusted,” a 30-second ad supporting Sydney Gruters, the Republican nominee in Florida’s 16th Congressional District. The spot is airing on broadcast, cable and digital platforms across the district, and the… -
Florida Congressional Candidate Films Man Appearing to Pick a Fight With Him, Jokes ‘Love My MAGA Neighborhood!’Somebody skipped their morning coffee Florida congressional candidate Mark Davis has made challenging the MAGA movement a central part of his political identity. Now, a video he shared shows him trading profanities with a man on a suburban… -
Has Partisan Gerrymandering Backfired in Florida?Mother Jones illustration; Getty With just 20 days to go before the midterm elections, Kelly Kirschner faced a crowd of his supporters last week at Café Havana, a Cuban restaurant in Bradenton, Florida, located in Congressional District… -
The fight for Florida's 16th DistrictKimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State You will now start receiving email updates 10/19/2026 07:00 AM EDT Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner is the Democratic nominee for… -
Sydney Gruters slightly outraises Kelly Kirschner, grows sizable cash lead in CD 16Republican Sydney Gruters holds a cash advantage over Democrat Kelly Kirschner in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan. But the two candidates saw roughly the same amount of money coming in during the last two months. New federal… -
“Sodagate” Shows Republican Desperation and Rat F***King at its worst.Polls and early turnout have made Republicans so desperate they are rolling out vicious and absurd dirty tricks to tar Democrats. We saw that yesterday on the Senate level with the bogus story that James Talarico had checked into an Ohio… -
They Build It. You Pay for ItIf you've sat in traffic on a road built for half the people using it, or watched your street flood after an ordinary storm, you know the problem. Growth has outrun the roads, pipes and drainage meant to carry it. The people profiting from…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions