Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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FL-14 House election: Kathy Castor vote percent
The odds
51.21%median
42%60%
Median 51.21%Middle half 49.05% – 53.41%
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.28% on Oct 19, 51.21% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 46% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 48% | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | ||
| At least 50% | 65% | ▼ 1 | 62¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 5.00 |
| At least 52% | 41% | 36¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | ||
| At least 54% | 19% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| At least 56% | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 5.00 | |
| At least 58% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FL- House, Kathy Castor
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BREAKING: Kathy Castor Hit With Ethics Complaint for Misusing Official ResourcesNational Republican Congressional Committee Text VICTORY to 21818 to help DEFEND our conservative majority! BREAKING: Kathy Castor Hit With Ethics Complaint for Misusing Official Resources Radical Democrat Kathy Castor was just hit with an… -
FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents. -
In a redrawn congressional district, Kathy Castor faces her toughest battleThe Hillsborough district leans strongly Republican, but election experts say the race between her and former state Rep. Mike Beltran is a toss-up. People like Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kathy Castor. The reconfigured map removed a… -
Last Squeeze🍊— 10.22.2026 — Florida GOP Drops Lawsuit Over Hope Florida Ad — Ben Shapiro Endorses Scott Singer — and Much More...Ron DeSantis: "Vote Yes on 3! The passage of Amendment 3 will be the largest property tax relief in a generation." Kathy Castor: "We have the momentum—but it's not over. The fight continues. We’re less than two weeks away from election… -
House Fight Tilts Blue, But GOP Still Has Escape RoutesDemocrats head into the next House battle with the kind of opening they have not seen in years. The national mood has turned sharply against the president in the White House, Republicans are dealing with voter anger over costs, and early… -
Trump Political Org Pours Millions Into Florida District Race After House GOP PAC Slashed FundingPresident Donald Trump’s political operation planned to spend money in a competitive House race Thursday after Republicans slashed funding in the district. The super PAC planned to spend $1 million in Washington’s third district, $85,000… -
Can Kathy Castor win in a district that favored Trump? Expect a close raceIn the back of a Brandon office park, roughly 30 volunteers spent a Thursday evening hyping up Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor in phone calls with voters. The Hillsborough incumbent has coasted to reelection for nearly two decades. Then… -
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough and Pinellas congressional seatsIt was a bit of a surprise to see The Tampa Bay Times recently “recommend” incumbent Republican Gus Bilikrakis over Democrat and former Hillsborough County commissioner Kimberly Oveman. In the write-up, the Times referred to Bilikrakis as… -
Florida Democrat Suddenly Says Men Shouldn’t Play in Girls’ Sports, Her Voting Record Says OtherwiseKathy Castor, the Democrat representing Florida’s 14th District, is trying to appeal to moderates as she faces Republican Mike Beltran in the upcoming midterm election. In both 2023 and 2025, Castor voted against the Protection of Women… -
Kathy Castor, Mike Beltran square off in a rare debate for CongressIn an election season with few debates, there was a spirited one for U.S. House Friday at the Tampa Tiger Bay Club. It's for a close contest for what used to be a safe seat for Tampa Congresswoman Kathy Castor. Castor has served in… -
Kathy Castor raises $2.2M in latest period, crushing Mike Beltran’s $458KU.S. Rep. Kathy Castor raised nearly $2.16 million in the latest reporting period to defend her seat. That’s more than four times what Republican challenger Mike Beltran raised in the same time. Still, thanks largely to a $2 million loan… - Kathy Castor and Mike Beltran put each other’s political records on trial at Tampa forumU.S. Rep. Kathy Castor and Republican challenger Mike Beltran traded sharp accusations over corporate influence, campaign contributions and their political records Friday during a combative congressional candidate forum in Ybor City. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions