Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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FL-09 House election: Darren Soto vote percent
The odds
48.04%median
38%58%
Median 48.04%Middle half 45.56% – 50.3%
How the odds have moved
Median: 47.22% on Oct 23, 48.04% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 42% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 44% | 88% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | |
| At least 46% | 72% | ▲ 1 | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | |
| At least 48% | 51% | ▲ 1 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | |
| At least 50% | 27% | 24¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 2.0K | |
| At least 52% | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| At least 54% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 56% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FL- House, Darren Soto
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John Mina throws political support to Darren Soto in critical CD 9 raceRunning in a district affected by Congressional redistricting this cycle, U.S. Rep. Darren Soto is touting an endorsement from one of his district’s top law enforcement leaders. Orange County Sheriff John Mina put his support behind the… -
Darren Soto faces fight of his career against Dan Green in newly redrawn CD 9U.S. Rep. Darren Soto has served Central Florida for a decade in Congress, but is contending with the toughest challenge of his political career this cycle. For what it’s worth, Soto outperformed Harris by 4 percentage points the same… -
Rep. Darren Soto and Okeechobee County Commissioner Terry Burroughs visit local small businessesLake Okeechobee News Rep. Darren Soto and Okeechobee County Commissioner Terry Burroughs visit local small businesses Join our family of readers for as little as $10 per month and support local, unbiased journalism. To Our Valued Readers –… -
FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents. -
Green’s funding lags in CD9 race, even with $1.8M loan to himselfRepublican Dan Green is trailing incumbent Democrat Darren Soto in campaign fundraising and outside spending for Central Florida’s redrawn Ninth Congressional District. That's even though President Trump's super PAC has funneled a third of… - Darren Soto’s internal polls show him tied with Dan Green in critical CD 9 contestInternal polling for U.S. Rep. Darren Soto shows him tied with Republican Dan Green. The survey by SEA Polling, which found the candidates in Florida’s 9th Congressional District tied at 41% in August, showed 44% of likely voters in the…
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Dan Green to Newsmax: Florida Voters Want New Leadership, Strong BorderRepublican Dan Green said Friday that Florida's 9th Congressional District needs new leadership focused on lower taxes, agriculture, and national security, arguing that his military experience has prepared him to challenge Rep. Darren… - Scalise heads to Florida to boost several GOP candidates - Live Updates - POLITICOThe NRCC and top Republicans are working to shore up seats across the Sunshine State after a mid-decade redistricting effort some GOP incumbents warned against. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is heading to Florida to boost a raft of…
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Editorial: Make your plan — and plan to voteAnd of course, there’s the most daunting task of all: Deciding who to vote for. Today, we’re reprinting the list of the Orlando Sentinel’s election endorsements, but there’s plenty of time to do your own research as well. District 7: Bale… - Orlando Weekly’s voting guide for the 2026 midtermsEarly voting is open now through Nov. 1. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Find a list of early voting locations in Orange County here. Find your Orange County polling place here. This year’s midterm elections in Orlando feature more than a…
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Soto Speaks at Highlands County Democratic Gala Saturday, Visits Churches SundayA Japanese spacecraft rocketed toward Mars on Tuesday on a q… Early voting for the general election begins in Highlands Co… Congressman Darren Soto spoke at the the Highlands County Democratic Party’s Copacabana Gala on Saturday. Pastor… -
Will Republicans Whiff in Florida?Punchbowl News: “Florida Republicans brazenly carved up their congressional map to add four new red seats at the behest of President Donald Trump and GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis.” ”It’s not quite going as planned.” ”There’s a real possibility…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions