Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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CO-01 House election: Melat Kiros vote percent
The odds
77.93%median
68%90%
Median 77.93%Middle half 74.25% – 81.27%
How the odds have moved
Median: 78.67% on Oct 19, 77.93% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 70% | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 72% | 87% | ▲ 1 | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | |
| At least 74% | 77% | ▲ 1 | 72¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 230 |
| At least 76% | 65% | ▲ 1 | 60¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | 200 |
| At least 78% | 50% | 45¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | ||
| At least 80% | 35% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 1.0K |
| At least 82% | 20% | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | ||
| At least 84% | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| At least 86% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| At least 88% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CO- House, Melat Kiros
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Obama cozies up to Dem Party's socialist wing as former president makes surprising midterm movesFormer President Barack Obama joins Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson at a campaign rally in Detroit. Former President Barack Obama is increasingly throwing his political weight behind socialist and socialist-aligned… -
Young Democrats Go After Maxine Waters, Seem To Regret Their DecisionA center-left group representing young Democrats deleted a post criticizing Democratic California Rep. Maxine Waters’ age after receiving pushback from one of its members. Majority Democrats took aim at Waters’ campaign to remain the top… -
Cooked or Cooking?: JB Pritzker Says DSA Is Dems’ ‘Recipe for Winning’ Future Elections, David Hogg NodsOn Wednesday, Pritzker discussed what recent Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) primary victories mean for his party. (WATCH) Illinois is losing people, the Bears are leaving, and a billionaire heir thinks socialism is the winning… -
EXCLUSIVE–Stephen Wagley Says Today’s Democrats Are Openly Socialist and CommunistStephen Wagley, a Republican candidate for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District, said Saturday that Democrats are now openly willing to call themselves socialists or communists. Speaking with host Matthew Boyle on Breitbart News… -
Warning: High volatility ahead | SONDERMANNSome described the 1990s in their aftermath as a “holiday from history.” Columnist George Will first coined the phrase. The reference was to a tranquil decade of relative peace and stability after the Soviet Union’s demise and the end of… -
Trump Political Org Pours Millions Into Florida District Race After House GOP PAC Slashed FundingPresident Donald Trump’s political operation planned to spend money in a competitive House race Thursday after Republicans slashed funding in the district. The super PAC planned to spend $1 million in Washington’s third district, $85,000… -
Kiros responds to CD1 candidates claims her comments were a “dog whistle” for antisemitic attacksDemocratic nominee for Colorado Congressional District 1 Melat Kiros is responding to unaffiliated Colorado Congressional District 1 candidate Shimon Blau’s claims that Kiros’s comments on the Boulder firebombing attack were a “dog… -
EXCLUSIVE: Campaign finance head for animal activist Colorado Dem Manny Rutinel wants to eliminate beef, poultry, pork industries"So they will take the houses the barns where you've got all the chickens. Clear that out and not you have an big space- an indoor space that you can convert to an indoor growing space." The deputy campaign finance director for Colorado… -
Franklin Graham Lays Out the Differences Between Parties Ahead of Midterms: ‘Look Prayerfully at what Both Parties Stand For’Rev. Franklin Graham is urging Americans to “look prayerfully at what both parties stand for,” laying out a few key differences between the Republican Party and Democrat Party in a viral social media post less than two weeks before… -
The Machine Behind the Democratic Party’s Radical TransformationFollow the Money: The Donors, Politicians and PACs Seeking to Bring Down the “American Empire”. WATCH to find out what’s inside our latest report A network of far-left political action committees (PACs) is working with Islamic groups to… -
Hundreds gather in Denver to push back on antisemitismFrom a CSU student's kibbutz paintings to online attacks on a congressional candidate, attendees detailed what they see as rising antisemitism More than 300 people — most of them non-Jews — crowded a ballroom in downtown Denver Monday to… -
The Socialists Want to Hold Congress HostageNot sure what fits? A licensed AMAC advisor will walk you through it, at no cost. If Democrats win the House by a few seats, DSA-backed members want to withhold their votes from Jeffries unless he agrees to defund ICE and end aid to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions