Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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CA-48 House election: Marni von Wilpert vote percent
The odds
55.3%median
44%64%
Median 55.3%Middle half 52.47% – 58.08%
How the odds have moved
Median: 55.86% on Oct 19, 55.3% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 48% | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 50% | 90% | 86¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | ||
| At least 52% | 79% | 74¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | ||
| At least 54% | 62% | 57¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 1.00 | |
| At least 56% | 44% | ▲ 1 | 39¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 1.0K |
| At least 58% | 26% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 400 |
| At least 60% | 13% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | ||
| At least 62% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Marni von Wilpert, CA- House
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‘How Many Tries Do Dems Need?’: Critics Question Hakeem Jeffries’ Backing of Marni von Wilpert to Fix Healthcare and Flip California’s 48thThe clip shows Jeffries and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert at a San Diego County hospital. Von Wilpert speaks at a podium outdoors and says, “The stakes of this election could not be more serious. To flip the US House of… -
Exclusive / Dems make a Kansas play as GOP eyes a California seatDemocrat Don Coover is down by three points against incumbent Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt, within the 3.9% margin of error, according to Democratic polling conducted in mid-October and shared with Semafor. House Democrats are making a… -
‘I think they’re just letting it go’: As GOP lags, late momentum favors von Wilpert in the region’s biggest House raceIn late September, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson vowed in a social media video that his party would “defy the odds” in the San Diego region’s most competitive race. Standing beside Republican candidate and San Diego County… - California gas prices have long plagued Democratic candidates. This year is differentIn California, gas prices remain the highest in the nation. And pain at the pump has been a hot topic in the state's most competitive races for Congress. The issue has long favored California's Republicans. But the war in Iran has given…
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Why the race for Congress in San Diego looks like a time warp to pre-Trump politicsThe insurgent left has come in all forms in California and across the country this cycle. But a different story is playing out in the open 48th Congressional District, which straddles San Diego and Riverside counties. Democrat Marni von… -
Von Wilpert seeks open Congressional District 48 seat - Idyllwild Town CrierAlmost All the News, Part of the Time. Since 1946. Von Wilpert seeks open Congressional District 48 seat By JP Crumrine Marni von Wilpert is the Democratic candidate seeking to represent California’s Congressional District 48 in the House… -
Scott Peters: ‘Data Center Doesn’t Belong in NAVWAR’By Andrew Bowen / KPBS / Oct. 16, 2026 Rep. Scott Peters on Friday said he is opposed to the concept of building a data center at the Navy’s NAVWAR campus in San Diego’s Midway District. For more than two years, the Navy has been in talks… -
Is this America’s most normal congressional race? San Diego candidates run on classic platformsDemocrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond are sticking to conventional centrist platforms in the closely watched San Diego House race. The insurgent left has come in all forms in California and across the country this cycle… -
LGBTQ+ congressional candidates could deliver a historic rebuke to MAGA Republicans at the ballot boxEquality PAC is backing candidates who could expand LGBTQ+ representation while campaigning on healthcare, affordability, and civil rights. Congressional candidate Marni Von Wilpert marches during the 2026 San Diego Pride Parade on July… -
Corruption claims are defining attack ads in this high-profile race for CongressThe San Diego region’s most competitive congressional election could prove a referendum on national politics and the Trump administration. But another theme is defining messaging in the race: ethics and transparency in how the candidates… -
Jim Desmond and Marni von Wilpert battle for control of newly redrawn 48th Congressional District seatSAN DIEGO COUNTY (KGTV)- A congressional seat that has been held by Republicans for years is now up for grabs, and the outcome could help determine which party controls the House. The 48th District, which was held by Darrell Issa, has been… -
San Diego City Council urges greater local regulatory authority over autonomous vehiclesFederal judge blocks ruling limiting F-1 visa international students to 4 years Trump administration moves to cut federal funding for low-earning degree programs San Diego County issues beach closures and advisories amid sewage…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions