Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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CA-24 House election: Salud Carbajal vote percent
The odds
64.85%median
54%78%
Median 64.85%Middle half 62.22% – 67.54%
How the odds have moved
Median: 63.49% on Oct 20, 64.85% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 56% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 58% | 96% | ▲ 3 | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 60% | 90% | ▲ 8 | 85¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 200 |
| At least 62% | 77% | ▲ 10 | 73¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | 1.4K |
| At least 64% | 59% | ▲ 12 | 54¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 1.0K |
| At least 66% | 39% | ▲ 11 | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 10.00 |
| At least 68% | 21% | ▲ 8 | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 5.00 |
| At least 70% | 10% | ▲ 5 | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | |
| At least 72% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | ||
| At least 74% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 | |||
| At least 76% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Salud Carbajal
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House race: Salud Carbajal faces newcomer Bob SmithVoters can choose between the two House of Representatives candidates during the general election on Nov. 3. The two candidates include incumbent Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal, a career politician seeking re-election, and Bob Smith, an… -
Nazi salutes at Cal Poly, ICE detains Central Coast student. Today’s top storiesFrom Nazi salutes outside a Cal Poly event to a World War II veteran's long-overdue burial, The Tribune reported on a range of significant developments across San Luis Obispo County and the Central Coast. Here is a quick look at what… -
Santa Barbara County Supervisors to Discuss Funding Options for New Orcutt LibrarySANTA MARIA, Calif. (KEYT) – The long-awaited plan for a new Orcutt Library is reaching a critical point, as the Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors prepare to consider how to pay for the project and move it closer to construction… -
‘Every day is a bonus day’: Second chance at life powers Eric Friedman’s bid for Santa Barbara mayorNews from the Central Coast View the voter guide A little more than a year ago, Santa Barbara City Councilman Eric Friedman suffered a heart attack. He was paddling at sea near the Santa Barbara Yacht Club when his heart gave out. His team… -
Jones Act Waiver Faces New Scrutiny Over Foreign Crews, TaxesThe Soho Square, a crude oil tanker sailing under the flag of Liberia, is at anchor in the Galveston Bay as it makes it’s way to the Port of Houston shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act… -
Santa Barbara shows up for No Kings DayNews from the Central Coast Over 1,000 protestors flooded the streets of downtown Santa Barbara at noon on Saturday, marching from Alameda Park to City Hall in a bold display of opposition to President Trump and and his federal policies… -
McCaul, Costa, Colleagues Urge "Full and Faithful" Implementation of Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran ActHouse Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Emeritus Michael McCaul (R-Texas) joined Congressman Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and 20 bipartisan colleagues in sending a letter to President Trump urging "full and faithful" implementation of the Lindsey… -
Meet Mayoral Candidate Eric FriedmanThe Channels sat down with Friedman ahead of the general election next month on Nov. 2 to discuss questions relevant to the City College community. Read our Q&A with Sneddon below. The Channels: What specific moment or set of circumstances… -
Rep. Costa Leads Bipartisan Push for Full Implementation of Graham Russia Sanctions Law2081 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 Email Me (202) 225-3341 “As Russia prepares to wage a fifth winter campaign against Ukraine, the United States has an opportunity to reinvigorate peace efforts by placing maximum… -
Congress Proposes $42M Investigation Into Toxic Waste Off California CoastPALOS VERDES, CA — More than half a century after industrial chemicals and military waste were dumped into the Pacific Ocean off Southern California, federal lawmakers are proposing a seven-year, $42 million research program to investigate… -
Carbajal and Smith outline competing priorities in race for California's 24th Congressional DistrictWith the November 3 general election approaching, voters across California’s 24th Congressional District will decide who will represent the Central Coast in Washington, D.C. The district includes all of Santa Barbara County and portions of… -
Té con Limon: Hispanic Heritage CelebrationVida Newspaper Ventura County only Bilingual Newspaper The yearly launch of this homage aligns with the independence anniversaries of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica from the Spanish empire in 1821. “Our…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions