Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent
The odds
35.2%median
22%46%
Median 35.2%Middle half 32.56% – 37.94%
How the odds have moved
Median: 36.8% on Oct 20, 35.2% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 24% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 26% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 28% | 97% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 30% | 92% | ▼ 4 | 87¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | |
| At least 32% | 80% | ▼ 8 | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 5.00 |
| At least 34% | 62% | ▼ 13 | 57¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 205 |
| At least 36% | 42% | ▼ 14 | 37¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 4.6K |
| At least 38% | 25% | ▼ 13 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 3.1K |
| At least 40% | 12% | ▼ 15 | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 675 |
| At least 42% | 8% | ▼ 3 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | |
| At least 44% | 4% | ▼ 2 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Bob Smith
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House race: Salud Carbajal faces newcomer Bob SmithVoters can choose between the two House of Representatives candidates during the general election on Nov. 3. The two candidates include incumbent Democratic Rep. Salud Carbajal, a career politician seeking re-election, and Bob Smith, an… -
New Jersey Seeks to Outlaw Gas Leaf Blowers as Fall Leaf Season Draws NearHome » U.S. News » Government » New Jersey Seeks to Outlaw Gas Leaf Blowers as Fall Leaf Season Draws Near TRENTON, NJ — A proposal sponsored by state Sen. Bob Smith would prohibit gas-powered leaf blowers in New Jersey residential areas… -
Community Voices: Bike lanes are a conservative cause. Stop targeting the leaders who are advocating for them.The numbers aren’t in dispute. Smart Growth America’s 2026 “Dangerous by Design” report ranked the Bakersfield metro third-deadliest in the nation for people on foot, with 229 pedestrian deaths from 2020 to 2024, up from 153 in the… -
Carbajal and Smith outline competing priorities in race for California's 24th Congressional DistrictWith the November 3 general election approaching, voters across California’s 24th Congressional District will decide who will represent the Central Coast in Washington, D.C. The district includes all of Santa Barbara County and portions of… -
'Their ballots will count': Saunders County early ballots valid despite mistake, clerk saysThe Saunders County Clerk says early ballots distributed are valid despite outdated instructions that imply a county official's signature was missing Outdated instructions on ballots in Saunders County, Nebraska, caused confusion for some… -
2026 San Luis Obispo voter guideCalifornia residents can vote new leaders into office and vote on propositions through Nov. 3 for the midterm election. Here is what San Luis Obispo residents can expect on their ballot. The city council helps decide on local laws and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions