Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.42%median
14%34%
Median 28.42%Middle half 26.14% – 30.91%
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CA-23 House election: Jay Obernolte vote percent
The odds
56.1%median
48%66%
Median 56.1%Middle half 54% – 58.63%
How the odds have moved
Median: 56.74% on Oct 19, 56.1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 95% | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | ||
| At least 52% | 89% | ▼ 2 | 86¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | |
| At least 54% | 75% | ▼ 3 | 73¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | |
| At least 56% | 51% | ▼ 10 | 47¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 5.00 |
| At least 58% | 30% | ▼ 12 | 25¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 5.00 |
| At least 60% | 14% | ▼ 10 | 9¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 5.00 |
| At least 62% | 8% | ▼ 4 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | |
| At least 64% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Jay Obernolte
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Election 2026: Here’s what you need to know about LA County’s US House racesAn ongoing House ethics investigation over alleged sexual misconduct, an open seat due to one sitting congressmember’s retirement and the impacts of mid-cycle redistricting – which California voters approved last year – are the story lines… -
Members of Congress talk flying, lawmaking at NBAA conventionReps. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) and Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.) talked during the National Business Aviation Association's annual convention in Las Vegas about how being active general aviation pilots influences their work in Congress. During the… -
Press ReleasesCourtesy Call on State Minister for Foreign Affairs HORII Iwao by the U.S. Congressional Staff Delegation Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan Courtesy Call on State Minister for Foreign Affairs HORII Iwao by the U.S. Congressional Staff… -
Anthropic Pitches AI Safety Bill With 50-Death, $1 Billion ThresholdUnder the federal AI bill Anthropic has drafted, Washington could stop a frontier model only after a judge agrees it poses a foreseeable, imminent risk to more than 50 people or more than $1 billion in damage. The company has been quietly… -
Anthropic to rewrite part of its leaked AI bill after safety backlashSafety advocates say the draft is weaker than the bipartisan FRONTIER Act. Anthropic says its preemption wording was “not precise enough” and will be rewritten. Anthropic has told US lawmakers it will rewrite part of its own draft AI… -
Anthropic Proposes Congress Bill Mirroring Claude’s Internal Safety PoliciesOctober 18, 2026 @ 4:15 pm By Omar Faridi Anthropic, the developer of the Claude series of models, has been privately circulating a draft bill to lawmakers on Capitol Hill that would establish federal rules for frontier AI systems… - Anthropic is pitching Congress its own AI safety bill, report saysAnthropic has been privately pitching lawmakers on a draft bill to regulate frontier AI safety and security, POLITICO reported Friday. The outlet cited three people familiar with the effort and obtained a copy of the confidential draft. An…
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Anthropic Wants to Limit Government Power Over AI: What the Secret Bill Would Do© ROOT-NATION.com - Use of content is permitted with a backlink. “This bill reflects the proposals set out in our Advanced AI Framework, which we have been promoting among federal authorities and state lawmakers since June,” an Anthropic… -
Anthropic Pitches Bill Letting US Block AI Models Only If They Risk Over $1 Billion in Damage, 50 Deaths or Serious Injuries: ReportAnthropic pitched lawmakers a draft bill that would let the government block a frontier AI model only if it posed an imminent risk of over $1 billion in damages or more than 50 deaths or serious injuries. The bill reflects Anthropic’s… -
Trahan hopes regulating AI could be contagious — in a good wayPlus Dems' weekend travel and a newsroom's union push How a badge-maker uses Claude to harness 170+ years of experience: VH Blackinton has handcrafted first-responder badges in the U.S. since 1852. When a wave of retirements threatened… -
Ron Conway’s latest regretThe must-read briefing on the people, power moves, policy battles and market shifts defining what’s next in global technology. You will now start receiving email updates You are already subscribed By CALDER MCHUGH, BRENDAN BORDELON and SAM…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions