Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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CA-19 House election: Jimmy Panetta vote percent
The odds
72.05%median
64%82%
Median 72.05%Middle half 69.56% – 74.41%
How the odds have moved
Median: 71.45% on Oct 19, 72.05% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 66% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 68% | 88% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | |
| At least 70% | 72% | ▲ 1 | 67¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | |
| At least 72% | 51% | ▲ 1 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | |
| At least 74% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | |
| At least 76% | 12% | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | ||
| At least 78% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | |||
| At least 80% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Jimmy Panetta
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Elon Musk Just Dumped Another $76 Million Into the MidtermsElon Musk gave his personal political committee, America PAC, more than $76 million in the first two weeks of October to boost Republicans in the final stretch of the midterms, according to a pre-election report the PAC filed Thursday… -
Silicon Valley Democrats demand investigation into Starlink restrictions in UkraineA group of Silicon Valley U.S. House Democrats on Friday demanded the White House investigate recent interruptions of Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service in Ukraine in a letter to White House chief of staff Susie Wiles. The letter… - Starshield slowdown probe sought by Silicon Valley DemocratsIn a letter sent to White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, three lawmakers demanded information about a reported slowdown of the government satellite network in Ukraine. 10/23/2026 10:40 AM EDT A trio of House Democrats representing…
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Silicon Valley Democrats press White House to investigate Starlink curbs in UkraineA group of House Democrats representing Silicon Valley asked Susie Wiles on Friday to open a broad review of Starlink disruptions in Ukraine. The letter, shared only with CNBC, was organized by California Democrats Sam Liccardo, Ro Khanna… -
Ukraine Officials Complain Starshield Restrictions Still Not Lifted, Despite Trump AssertionsUkraine says its military forces continue to experience disruptions to critical battlefield communications, a day after President Trump declared that these restrictions had been removed. "President Trump called Elon Musk on Wednesday and… -
SF: Pelosi Latest Member Of Congress To Receive Suspicious Letter At District OfficeHouse Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, is the latest member of Congress to receive a suspicious letter at her district office after similar cases have been reported recently elsewhere involving a powdery substance sent to… -
Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco office latest California target of suspicious mailingsSpeaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi is seen in the U.S. Capitol in February. Pelosi’s San Francisco district office received a suspicious letter Wednesday, her spokesperson said. It comes as the FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service investigate… -
Pelosi's office receives 'suspicious' mail, latest elected official to receive mysterious packageSAN FRANCISCO - DECEMBER 15: Stacks of boxes holding cards and letters are seen at the U.S. Post Office sort center December 15, 2008 in San Francisco, California. On its busiest day of the year, the U.S. Postal Service is expecting to… - Congressional Family Business Caucus Signs Rep. Tim Moore as 51st MemberLawmakers Hear Directly from Family Business Leaders on Capitol Hill Washington DC, United States, October 21, 2026 — The bipartisan Congressional Family Business Caucus saw its 51st member, Rep. Tim Moore (R-NC), join its bipartisan ranks…
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Rep. Mike Thompson’s Napa office receives threatening letter containing white powderRep. Mike Thompson was one of more than three dozen members of Congress across the nation to receive threatening letters containing unidentified white powder, his office revealed Monday afternoon. The envelope was mailed to Thompson’s… - Rep. Thompson receives threatening letter containing white powderU.S. Rep. Mike Thompson said on Monday that he was one of nearly a dozen politicians in California to recently receive a threatening letter containing white powder. “Recently, suspicious envelopes containing white powder have been mailed…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions