Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
27.83%median
14%34%
Median 27.83%Middle half 25.59% – 30.33%
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CA-18 House election: Zoe Lofgren vote percent
The odds
72.28%median
62%80%
Median 72.28%Middle half 69.15% – 75.19%
How the odds have moved
Median: 71.52% on Oct 19, 72.28% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 64% | 96% | 92¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 66% | 93% | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 68% | 83% | 78¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | ||
| At least 70% | 70% | 65¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | ||
| At least 72% | 53% | 48¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | ||
| At least 74% | 35% | 30¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | ||
| At least 76% | 19% | 14¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | ||
| At least 78% | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Zoe Lofgren
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Reps. Lofgren, Whitesides Introduce Bill to Protect Elections from Intimidation Tactics and InferenceWASHINGTON D.C. – On Friday, Reps. George Whitesides (CA-27) and Zoe Lofgren (CA-18) introduced the Stop Harassment and Intimidations in Elections through Legal Defenses (SHIELD) Our Elections Act, legislation designed to empower state… -
'Protect Elections from Intimidation Tactics, Inference Act' ProposedReps. George Whitesides (CA-27) and Zoe Lofgren (CA-18) introduced the Stop Harassment and Intimidations in Elections through Legal Defenses (SHIELD) Our Elections Act on Friday, Oct. 23. This legislation is designed to empower state… -
Musk threatens Democrats teeing up congressional probesElon Musk, President Donald Trump's multi-billionaire ally, on Wednesday threatened Democrats who want to investigate alleged corruption and his role in the US government if they win control of Congress next month. "Live by the sword, die… - Google In-House Lobbying Falls to $3.23M in Ad-Tech QuarterGoogle's in-house lobbying fell to $3.23M in Q3 2026 as the DOJ won ad-tech remedies. Learn which issues the filing covers and why it matters to advertisers. Google In-House Lobbying Falls to $3.23M in Ad-Tech Quarter Google Client…
- Intel Lobbying Rises as Senate Advances Chip Export ControlsIntel Corp. disclosed lobbying on the Stop Stealing our Chips Act, which passed the Senate on May 20 and awaits House action. The legislation would establish whistleblower incentives and protections for people reporting violations of U.S…
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Elon Musk threatens Democrats teeing up congressional probesElon Musk, President Donald Trump's multi-billionaire ally, on Wednesday threatened Democrats who want to investigate alleged corruption and his role in the US government if they win control of Congress next month. "Live by the sword, die… -
"Live By The Sword, Die By The Sword": Elon Musk's Message To DemocratsElon Musk, President Donald Trump's multi-billionaire ally, on Wednesday threatened Democrats who want to investigate alleged corruption and his role in the US government if they win control of Congress next month. "Live by the sword, die… -
Pelosi's office receives 'suspicious' mail, latest elected official to receive mysterious packageSAN FRANCISCO - DECEMBER 15: Stacks of boxes holding cards and letters are seen at the U.S. Post Office sort center December 15, 2008 in San Francisco, California. On its busiest day of the year, the U.S. Postal Service is expecting to… -
Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco office latest California target of suspicious mailingsSpeaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi is seen in the U.S. Capitol in February. Pelosi’s San Francisco district office received a suspicious letter Wednesday, her spokesperson said. It comes as the FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service investigate… -
NSF Acting Director, Chief of Staff to ExitCharlotte Geary / NSF The high-profile departures could add to the current leadership vacuum at NSF. Stone has served as the face of the agency since the early days of the administration, a particularly tumultuous period for NSF. Keiser… -
Obama signs bill "unlocking" cell phonesAugust 1, 2014 / 4:37 PM EDT / CBS News WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama signed a bipartisan bill into law Friday that aims to make it easier for consumers to change their cell phone service providers without paying for a new phone… -
Democrats Outline Priorities for Next Congress’ House Science CommitteeHouse Science Committee Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) at a hearing in September. Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA via AP With the Nov. 3 election less than three weeks away, Democratic lawmakers are hoping to reverse Trump administration…
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Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)
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10.45%median
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Montana Senate election: Alani Bankhead vote percent
13.67%median
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Montana Senate election: Kurt Alme vote percent
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Median 45.5%Middle half 42.33% – 48.36%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions