Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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CA-05 House election: Tom McClintock vote percent
The odds
55.74%median
48%68%
Median 55.74%Middle half 52.94% – 58.5%
How the odds have moved
Median: 55.79% on Oct 22, 55.74% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 92% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | |
| At least 52% | 83% | ▲ 1 | 78¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | |
| At least 54% | 67% | ▲ 1 | 62¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | |
| At least 56% | 48% | ▲ 1 | 43¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | |
| At least 58% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | |
| At least 60% | 14% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | |
| At least 62% | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| At least 64% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| At least 66% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Tom McClintock
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Watch: Michael Masuda, Tom McClintock meet for Congressional District 5 debateIn November, voters will decide who they want to represent them in Congress. Congressional District 5 covers Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Inyo, Mariposa, Mono and Tuolumne counties. It also covers parts of El Dorado, Fresno, Madera, San… -
Congressional District 5 debate recap: Where Michael Masuda, Tom McClintock stand on key issuesMichael Masuda, Tom McClintock debate wildfire protection, insurance, the cost of living, rural access to healthcare, the Iran war and more in the race to represent Congressional District 5. KCRA 3 hosted a debate between the two… - Tom McClintock, 5th District Congressional CandidateServing the heart of California since 1892 Tom McClintock (R) is currently serving at the U.S. Representative for California’s 5th Congressional District, which was previously the 4th Congressional District before the redistricting last…
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Politics Focus | Big media can’t get enough of Adam Gray v. Kevin Lincoln House 13 raceNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Big shoutout to all of you who came to our VotingMatters event last week. If you missed the invigorating discussion (and free tacos), here are a couple of things I said about local ballot measures… -
Virginia sanctuary county ignores 1,670 detainer requests over 2 years, House Judiciary Committee findsCheryl Minter calls for Virginia prosecutor Steve Descano’s removal after an illegal immigrant with more than 30 prior arrests was charged in her daughter Stephanie’s bus stop killing. The Fairfax County Sheriff’s Office in Virginia… -
‘I’m an engineer, not a politician.’ Democrat Michael Masuda on why he’s running for District 5Courtesy of the Masuda Campaign There are 52 House seats in California, the largest share in Congress. And all are up for reelection. After voters approved Prop 50, California’s 5th Congressional District, now extends from the Sierra… - Congressional Candidate Michael Masuda | EV Adoptions in California | Sac Poetry Weekcapradio.org Explore the region. Get involved in your community. Experience moments of joy. Delivered Tuesdays & Thursdays Thursday, October 15, 2026 Congressional Candidate Michael Masuda | EV Adoptions in California | Sac Poetry Week…
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Local veterans go on a special missionMountain Democrat Foothills Church in Cameron Park hosted approximately 80 veterans from El Dorado, Amador, Sacramento and Placer counties for the sixth annual Mission to Honor Veterans on Oct Designed for service personnel with an… -
House bill allows victims of illegal alien crime to sue sanctuary officials, jurisdictionsby WorldTribune Staff / 247 Real News October 13, 2026 Legislation introduced by House Republicans will allow the victims of crimes committed by illegal aliens to sue officials in the sanctuary cities and states that release the criminals… -
WATCH | District 5 House hopeful Michael Masuda lays out priorities in interview, promises to be ‘available to people’Nonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Michael Masuda talks with people at street fairs, farmers markets, town hall events and many more venues – including a remote recorded interview with The Modesto Focus, the basis for this news… -
Bill Allowing Victims to Sue Judges, Others Who Let Illegals Run Wild Is Quietly Advancing in CongressThe measure is the Shut Down Sanctuary Policies Act of 2026, H.R. 7640. Republican Rep. Tom McClintock of California introduced it on Feb. 23. The House placed it on the Union Calendar on March 12 as Calendar No. 465. Just the News… -
Sanctuary Cities Aren't Going to Like This BillHouse Republicans are pushing a measure that would allow citizens to sue sanctuary cities and states for damage caused by illegal immigrants. The bill passed through the House Judiciary Committee in September and could be headed for a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions