AZ-04 House election: Zuhdi Jasser vote percent

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

40.81%median

32%52%

Median 40.81%Middle half 38.17% – 43.56%

How the odds have moved

Median: 40.33% on Oct 19, 40.81% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays
At least 34%	96%	92¢		$1.04
At least 36%	90%	85¢	94¢	$1.06
At least 38%	77%	72¢	81¢	$1.23
At least 40%	59%	54¢	63¢	$1.59
At least 42%	38%	33¢	42¢	$2.38
At least 44%	22%	17¢	26¢	$3.85
At least 46%	10%	5¢	14¢	$7.14
At least 48%	4%		8¢	$12.50
At least 50%	3%		6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AZ- House, Zuhdi Jasser

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Rundown Promo – AZ House Race930 WFMD Free Talk · 5 days agoINTRO: Voters remain skeptical of artificial intelligence data centers... with less than two weeks to go until the midterm elections. A Fox News Poll shows 71-percent of registered voters oppose building one in their community. Arizona…
MI Senate, AZ House & Women's Midterm Milestones (49)FOX 2 Detroit · 7 days agoFOX 2 Detroit A look at Michigan's Senate race, Arizona's House battlegrounds and potential historic milestones for women in Congress and governor's races.
Former MSNBC Host Cenk Uygur Blames Christianity for the HolocaustNewsbusters · 4 days agoJordan Schachtel at Conservative Review reports that former MSNBC host Cenk Uygur, co-founder of the ultra-left YouTube show Young Turks, launched into an attack on Muslim Reform Movement leader Zuhdi Jasser at the left-leaning Web summit…
Record number of American Muslims contesting U.S. Mid Terms 2026ummid · 4 days agoA record number of American Muslims are contesting the U.S. Midterm elections 2026 scheduled to be held on November 03, 2026. The outcome of the U.S. Mid Term Elections will decide who – Democrats or Republicans, will control the U.S…
Muslim Americans seek historic gains in US midtermsMuslim Network TV · 7 days agoWASHINGTON (MNTV) – Muslim Americans are preparing for a potentially historic election as dozens of candidates seek congressional, state and local offices across the United States in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. An extensive investigation…
Questions surround El-Sayed’s allege Muslim Brotherhood ties: Senate candidate pushes backThe National Desk · 7 days agoWASHINGTON (TNND) — Questions have continued to swirl around Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and his alleged personal and family connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political movement, as he faces…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onElections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Phoenix, AZ

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$0 (0 contracts)

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Zuhdi Jasser in the 2026 AZ-04 House election is 34% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions