Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-11 House election: Scott Wiener vote percent
The odds
53.19%median
42%62%
Median 53.19%Middle half 50.48% – 55.83%
How the odds have moved
Median: 52.92% on Oct 19, 53.19% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 271 | |
| At least 46% | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 48% | 93% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | |
| At least 50% | 79% | ▲ 1 | 77¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | |
| At least 52% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | |
| At least 54% | 42% | ▲ 1 | 37¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | |
| At least 56% | 24% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | |
| At least 58% | 11% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 635 | |
| At least 60% | 5% | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 200 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Scott Wiener
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Connie Chan falling behind Scott Wiener, despite Pelosi endorsementWith less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. "The margin of error overlaps, so that's an effective tie between… -
California Senator Scott Wiener Faces Backlash Over Claims of Election Interference: ‘Why is upholding the law fascist behavior?’That’s a bold thing to say The remarks he made on social media sparked a dispute over whether federal officials were protecting election integrity or using citizenship-related investigations to undermine political opponents. While some… -
Scott Wiener is coming for Connie Chan’s turf. Is it a numbers game, or ‘psychological warfare’?On opposite sides of the Richmond District, canvassers hit the streets on a recent Saturday morning with warring goals. About 50 union carpenters left Scott Wiener’s Westside headquarters in the Inner Richmond looking to secure votes for… -
Sephardic and Mizrahi Groups Condemn Wiener’s Genocide ClaimA coalition of Sephardic and Mizrahi Jewish organizations issued a joint statement on Jan. 14 condemning California State Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) for saying Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and calling on him to resign… -
Polls put Wiener ahead of Chan, but monolingual Chinese voters could give Chan needed boostA new independent poll of the race to succeed Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi in Congress finds that state Sen. Scott Wiener leads Supervisor Connie Chan by six percentage points, at 47 percent to 41 percent. When undecided respondents were… -
‘The Godmother’s’ power fades as new poll shows Nancy Pelosi’s pick for successor flounderingFormer House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains a Democratic powerhouse in California, but a bombshell poll just two weeks before Election Day suggests even her political clout may not be enough to handpick her successor. Pelosi, who is set to… - Newsom, Pelosi Rally San Francisco Crowd Against Prop 39 Voter ID MeasureTwo state senators running for Congress, Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Mike McGuire of Santa Rosa, rounded out the roster of speakers. The large turnout of elected officials underscored how central Proposition 39 has become to…
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Meet the S.F. congressional candidates: Expand work visas and green card access?Welcome back to our “Meet the Candidates” series, where the congressional candidates respond to a question in 100 words or fewer. Answers will be published every Monday. To see what candidates said previously on topics like foreign policy… -
The SF race to replace Pelosi is locked in 'an effective tie'At left, Connie Chan; at right, Scott Wiener. With less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. “The margin of… -
Election Extra! Matt Haney gets started early for state senate bidIn the days before the Nov. 3 election, Mission Local will be posting “election extras” with updates from the campaign trail. Today: San Francisco Assemblymember Matt Haney announced a list of 52 fellow California Assembly members who… -
Poll shows first independent evidence: Wiener slightly leads Chan in race to succeed PelosiSan Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, right, during her debate with State Sen. Scott Wiener at KQED in San Francisco on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026. Polling is starting to show that Wiener has a narrow lead over Chan in the race. With less than… -
Fate of Bay Area public transit hinges on regional transit measureOn Nov. 3, voters in five Bay Area counties will vote on a regional sales tax measure that, if it fails, could prompt local transit agencies to close train stations and cut bus service. If passed, the Regional Transit Measure, or RTM, will…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions