Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-11 House election: Connie Chan vote percent
The odds
46.95%median
36%58%
Median 46.95%Middle half 44.37% – 49.53%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.41% on Oct 19, 46.95% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 38% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 40% | 96% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 42% | 92% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 15.00 |
| At least 44% | 79% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | |
| At least 46% | 60% | ▲ 1 | 55¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | |
| At least 48% | 40% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 34.00 |
| At least 50% | 21% | ▲ 1 | 16¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | |
| At least 52% | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| At least 54% | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 312 | |
| At least 56% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 454 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Connie Chan
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Connie Chan falling behind Scott Wiener, despite Pelosi endorsementWith less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. "The margin of error overlaps, so that's an effective tie between… -
Connie Chan, vying for Pelosi's seat, stands with Gaza and calls for arms embargo on IsraelConnie Chan, vying for Pelosi's seat, stands with Gaza Israel kills man with disability in Syria: report Two dead in eastern Saudi airport attack: aviation authority Egypt weighs Yemen intervention as ghosts of 1960s war loom How Egypt's… -
Election Extra! Gary McCoy nets contributions, Saikat Chakrabarti commits more money to Connie ChanIn the few remaining days before the Nov. 3 election, Mission Local will be posting “election extras” with updates from the campaign trail. Today: A surprise rush of contributions to District 8 supervisor candidate Gary McCoy, and former… -
Scott Wiener is coming for Connie Chan’s turf. Is it a numbers game, or ‘psychological warfare’?On opposite sides of the Richmond District, canvassers hit the streets on a recent Saturday morning with warring goals. About 50 union carpenters left Scott Wiener’s Westside headquarters in the Inner Richmond looking to secure votes for… -
Opinion: Why labor supports Connie Chan for CongressWhy labor supports Connie Chan for Congress 48 Hills Opinion: Why labor supports Connie Chan for Congress Local unions aren't always in agreement on politics—but they agree on this election It’s a common misconception that organized labor… -
‘The Godmother’s’ power fades as new poll shows Nancy Pelosi’s pick for successor flounderingFormer House Speaker Nancy Pelosi remains a Democratic powerhouse in California, but a bombshell poll just two weeks before Election Day suggests even her political clout may not be enough to handpick her successor. Pelosi, who is set to… -
Meet the S.F. congressional candidates: Expand work visas and green card access?Welcome back to our “Meet the Candidates” series, where the congressional candidates respond to a question in 100 words or fewer. Answers will be published every Monday. To see what candidates said previously on topics like foreign policy… - Nancy Pelosi goes all in on helping elect an underdog as her successorThe Washington Post The former House speaker’s endorsement of Connie Chan has scrambled the race to replace her. SAN FRANCISCO — In her decades leading House Democrats, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (California) was known for the ironfisted rule that…
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The SF race to replace Pelosi is locked in 'an effective tie'At left, Connie Chan; at right, Scott Wiener. With less than two weeks before election day, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are nearly tied as they battle to represent San Francisco in Congress, according to a recent poll. “The margin of… - Poll: Chan trailing Wiener despite Pelosi supportThe incumbent has campaigned heavily for Connie Chan since endorsing her. But voters who view Nancy Pelosi favorably aren’t flocking to Chan, an independent poll finds. Nancy Pelosi remains popular with voters in the San Francisco district…
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Poll shows first independent evidence: Wiener slightly leads Chan in race to succeed PelosiSan Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, right, during her debate with State Sen. Scott Wiener at KQED in San Francisco on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026. Polling is starting to show that Wiener has a narrow lead over Chan in the race. With less than… - How ‘the mayor’s network’ landed a private school kid a commissioner rolePlus: North Beach historic district hits a snag, Connie Chan and Matt Haney land new endorsements, and Daniel Lurie meets with first Manny Yekutiel accuser. Plus: North Beach historic district hits a snag, Connie Chan and Matt Haney land…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions