Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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VA-02 House election: Elaine Luria vote percent
The odds
53.16%median
42%62%
Median 53.16%Middle half 51% – 55.32%
How the odds have moved
Median: 52.02% on Oct 19, 53.16% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 46% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 48% | 96% | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | ||
| At least 50% | 86% | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | ||
| At least 52% | 65% | 60¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | ||
| At least 54% | 40% | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 289 | |
| At least 56% | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 100 | |
| At least 58% | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| At least 60% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: VA- House, Elaine Luria
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Elaine Luria Launches “Republicans for Elaine” Coalition, Releases Digital Video with Former Jen Kiggans SupportersElaine Luria Launches Republicans for Elaine Coalition, Releases Digital Video with Former Kiggans Supporters Republicans for Elaine member: “I’m a Ronald Reagan Republican and I’ll be voting for a Democrat for the first time.” Luria’s new… -
EXCLUSIVE: Washington Reporter fact check cited in tossup race’s adRep. Jen Kiggans (R., Va.) is arguing in one of her final campaign ads of the 2026 election that her opponent, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D., Va.), can’t be trusted by voters of Virginia’s 2nd District. Kiggans’s campaign told the… -
Lucas indictment unlikely to move needle for midterm voters, expert saysDespite Sen. Louise Lucas’s indictment occurring so close to an election, the impacts on next week’s midterms could be minimal. That’s according to Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Mary… -
Trump's House nightmare deepens as famed election guru pushes 19 more races towards DemocratsBy SAMANTHA LOREN, US POLITICAL REPORTER President Trump and his party are facing fresh warning signs ahead of the midterms as 19 more House races shift toward Democrats, with six competitive seats moving out of toss-up territory and into… -
New Poll by State Navigate, Which Nailed the 2025 VA Governor’s Race, Shows Dems “poised for their largest win in Virginia’s congressional elections in decades”A new poll of Virginia, by State Navigate (which nailed the 2025 Virginia governor’s, Lt. Governor’s and Attorney General’s races) is out this morning. Check it out here, and see below for highlights. In general, this is great news for… -
DMFI to spend $7 million to support Reps. Don Davis, Shomari FiguresThe districts are seen as longshots for Democrats; DMFI PAC’s Brian Romick said, ‘Winning battleground districts like theirs is essential to building a broad coalition’ Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Rep. Don Davis (D-NC)… -
Virginia's 7th District has been swung between both major parties historicallyOne of Virginia's congressional districts has a long history of supporting Republicans and Democrats. But the district is not expected to swing this year although it is the most expensive anywhere in the Commonwealth. Virginia's 7th… -
DCCC Releases New TV Ad in VA-02: “Two Choices” – Jen Kiggans “runs fromer her job and votes with Trump 100% of the time”See below for a new ad from the DCCC, entitled “Two Choices,” and “highlighting how while Jen Kiggans runs from her job and votes with Trump 100% of the time, former Congresswoman Elaine Luria will always fight for Virginia. ” DCCC… -
Where the candidates in three competitive Virginia US House races stand on the issuesIncumbent Republican representatives in Virginia’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th congressional districts are running in tight races against Democratic challengers. Congressional races in the 1st, 2nd and 5th congressional districts of Virginia this… -
These Democrats remind voters that war in Iran isn’t just about gas pricesThree Democrats from different parts of Virginia campaigned together Monday and invoked the war in Iran as a major election issue that goes beyond its effect on the price of gas. The unpopular war, which has roiled oil markets, has been a… -
Jon Stewart extends his ‘Daily Show’ gig through 2028Three Democrats from different parts of Virginia campaigned together Monday and invoked the war in Iran as a major election issue that goes beyond its effect on the price of gas. The unpopular war, which has roiled oil markets, has been a… -
How 3 Virginia races showcase the House battlegroundVirginia Republicans caught a break this spring when the state Supreme Court struck down a map drawn to help Democrats win 10 of the commonwealth’s 11 House seats. But Virginia remains instructive to the fight for the House majority, and a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions