Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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OH-09 House election: Marcy Kaptur vote percent
The odds
52.48%median
42%62%
Median 52.48%Middle half 50.19% – 54.83%
How the odds have moved
Median: 51.91% on Oct 19, 52.48% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 44% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 46% | 97% | 93¢ | $1.04 | |||
| At least 48% | 92% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | |
| At least 50% | 77% | ▲ 1 | 73¢ | 81¢ | $1.23 | |
| At least 52% | 56% | ▲ 1 | 51¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | |
| At least 54% | 33% | ▲ 1 | 28¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 11.00 |
| At least 56% | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| At least 58% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 5.00 | ||
| At least 60% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OH- House, Marcy Kaptur
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Why Democrats are looking to Katherine Clark to bring ‘order’ to the HouseThe Massachusetts progressive could be the first woman to serve as House majority leader. She’ll have her hands full. Clark, seen Oct. 10 in Cleveland, insisted a House Democratic majority "isn't going to be my-way-or-the-highway from any… -
House Fight Tilts Blue, But GOP Still Has Escape RoutesDemocrats head into the next House battle with the kind of opening they have not seen in years. The national mood has turned sharply against the president in the White House, Republicans are dealing with voter anger over costs, and early… -
AOC Has A ‘Girl’s Girl’ Explanation For Defending ‘Trans Rights’The New York congresswoman doubled down on her support for transgender ideology. Leftist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) claimed being a “girl’s girl” led her to stand up for the rights of men who identify as women. The New York… -
Democrats Split as Russia Sanctions Fight Turns Into Tariff ClashHouse Democrats are heading into a vote this week divided over a Russia sanctions bill that has become as much about presidential trade power as it is about punishing Moscow. Party leaders are publicly lining up against the measure, but… -
UAW Members Out in Force in Key Midterm Districts Could Shape the Next CongressThe 2026 field program is also an opportunity to hear from members and develop a working-class-led political agenda for the new Congress in 2027. The UAW is prioritizing must-win races in districts where the union’s membership density… -
House Republicans Subpoena New Jersey Secretary of State for Information on the State Registering Over 6,000 Noncitizens to VoteWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), House Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), and House Administration… -
2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in KansasPresident Donald Trump is taking his midterm campaign to Kansas as Democrats look to regain ground with Latino and rural voters in competitive House and Senate races. President Donald Trump is scheduled to rally for Republican Sen. Roger… -
Dems face scrutiny over transgender athletes in girls’ sports in final midterm stretchWith the midterm elections just two weeks away, some Democratic candidates in competitive races are facing questions about their positions on transgender athletes in girls' sports, as new campaign advertisements highlight policies that… -
Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana general election guide: What's on the ballot, polling info, moreThe November election is quickly approaching. There are plenty of races on the ballot across our region. Ohio will hold races for a U.S. Senate seat, U.S. House seats and governor, bringing a ton of publicity to the state as midterm… -
‘Divorced from reality’: House leader Jeffries says Dems ‘hold firm’ in midterm race—and says Trump undermines ‘democracy, freedom and dignity’House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday the election climate is holding firm for Democrats as he campaigned for Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a heavily contested Ohio congressional district that is crucial for majority control of the… -
The Latest: Democrats gain ground with AAPI adults as trust in GOP fades, poll findsMeanwhile, Trump on Sunday endorsed embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late in his reelection campaign, a coveted boost because of Trump’s popularity, but one that the American had withheld for months as the vote neared… -
Kaptur, Merrin battle again in U.S. 9th District raceA focused rematch might be one way to describe the race this fall for the 9th U.S. District seat that is about to represent all area counties in the U.S. House of Representatives. "About" is the operative word because starting in January…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions