Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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NY-04 House election: Laura Gillen vote percent
The odds
55.39%median
46%66%
Median 55.39%Middle half 52.44% – 58.38%
How the odds have moved
Median: 55.56% on Oct 19, 55.39% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 48% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 50% | 89% | ▲ 1 | 85¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | |
| At least 52% | 79% | ▲ 1 | 74¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | |
| At least 54% | 63% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | |
| At least 56% | 45% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | |
| At least 58% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | |
| At least 60% | 14% | 10¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| At least 62% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 64% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House, Laura Gillen
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Laura Gillen defeats Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in heated NY rematch focused on border securityDemocrats scored a key House win on Long Island, unseating a Republican accused of an affair and patronage. Laura Gillen, Democratic candidate for New York's 4th Congressional District, reacts before a roundtable discussion Oct. 24, 2024… -
NY House candidate Brad Lander briefly detained by Israeli military in West BankWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… - New York 4th District Election 2026: Laura Gillen vs. Jeanine DriscollMLB Picks Tampa Bay Rays Cleveland Guardians NFL Picks College Football Picks Politics News Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers The candidates have vastly divergent political ideologies, but the incumbent, Representative Gillen, is…
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Iran war looms over the midtermsBy MADISON FERNANDEZ with NICK REISMAN and CHRIS SOMMERFELDT 10/21/2026 06:00 AM EDT Presented by Transport Workers Union of America With help from Molly Reinmann HAPPY WEDNESDAY. Madison Fernandez here. On tap, we have a look at how the… - As midterms near, Long Island congressional districts seen as key battlegroundsHakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, speaks during a rally for Democratic candidates at Mirelle's Restaurant in Westbury on Saturday. Credit: Jeff Bachner WESTBURY — Ten days before the midterm elections, national congressional…
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Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seatFox News Lawler, Conley battle for competitive NY House seat Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Fox News Live’ to discuss his heated debate against Democratic challenger Cait Conley in New York’s 17th Congressional District, the Paris… -
LI Edition: OPEIU Local 153 endorses Congresswoman Laura Gillen![NEW YORK CITY, NY] - Friday, October 16, 2026 We are proud to have workers on Long Island who keep fundamental Long Island institutions running. Their fights include the fight against AI and how this emerging technology will fundamentally… - Bipartisan backlash from Long Island lawmakers over Trump lifting Russia sanctionsPresident Donald Trump greets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15, 2025. Trump argued lifting the sanctions ensures Russian President Vladimir Putin will remain at “the bargaining table” with Ukraine. Credit…
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Trump Slashing Deportation Protections Shows Why Temporary Status Shouldn't Depend on Who's PresidentThe Trump administration has eroded America's humanitarian avenues, including TPS, which shields migrants from deportation. As a result, many noncitizens may become undocumented and could be forced to return to unsafe places. Critics often… -
U.S. Rep. Laura Gillen, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark want healthcare to be more affordableLess than three weeks before the 2026 election, U.S. Rep. Laura Gillen and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark say they want to make healthcare more affordable and reverse policies implemented by the current administration. Gillen hosted… -
Midterms in 30: Key House Races in Michigan and New YorkWith control of the U.S. House at stake in the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Michigan and New York are important battlegrounds. Competitive districts, open seats and closely contested campaigns could determine which party controls Congress for… -
Exclusive: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries discusses midterms, affordability & the future of the Democratic PartyOct 19, 2026, 3:55 PM House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says voter frustration over the cost of living and key congressional races in New York will help Democrats regain the House in November. In an extended and wide-ranging…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions