Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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MT-01 House election: Sam Forstag vote percent
The odds
47.77%median
38%58%
Median 47.77%Middle half 45.83% – 49.76%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.9% on Oct 19, 47.77% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 42% | 96% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 5.00 |
| At least 44% | 91% | ▼ 1 | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 5.00 |
| At least 46% | 74% | ▼ 3 | 69¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 598 |
| At least 47% | 60% | ▼ 5 | 56¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 422 |
| At least 48% | 47% | ▼ 5 | 43¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 655 |
| At least 50% | 22% | ▼ 5 | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 205 |
| At least 52% | 8% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 10.00 |
| At least 54% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 5.00 | |
| At least 56% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: MT- House, Sam Forstag
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Democrat Sam Forstag outraises Republican Aaron Flint in western US House districtAs the 2026 election cycle nears its close, campaign spending continues to heat up in Montana’s competitive races. Campaign finance filings through Oct. 14 show Democrat Sam Forstag with a lead in both total fundraising and cash on hand… -
Sam Forstag responds to GOP attacks on trans issues: 'We don't have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections'CNN Sam Forstag responds to GOP attacks on trans issues: ‘We don’t have to throw our friends under the bus to win elections’ Montana Democratic House candidate Sam Forstag talks to Dana Bash about Republican campaign attacks on trans… -
Sam Forstag comes to UMU.S. Congressional candidate Sam Forstag speaks during a town hall in the Eck liberal arts building at University of Montana on Oct. 20. Sam Forstag took to the University of Montana Tuesday evening to speak with students two weeks before… -
RAW: MT: HOUSE SPEAKER JOHNSON IN MT/RURAL HEALTHCARELocal 3 News House Speaker Mike Johnson brings national spotlight to Montana GOP races Live cockroaches, spoiled food and glove-changing lead this week's violations Woman killed after being struck by vehicle in Chattanooga; police… -
Letter to the editor: Vote Sam Forstag for CongressBillings Gazette Javascript is required to use this website. I am writing in hopes of convincing my fellow Montanans to choose Sam Forstag as our next representative for Montanaâs First Congressional District. People are also reading⦅ -
Vice President JD Vance to stump for Republicans in Belgrade next weekUnited States Vice President J.D. Vance will visit Belgrade next week to campaign on behalf of Republican candidates for federal office in Montana. Carly Graf has worked for the Montana State News Bureau since 2023. In recent years, the… -
Death of a cypherpunkThe must-read briefing on the people, power moves, policy battles and market shifts defining what’s next in global technology. By SAM SUTTON, CALDER MCHUGH, BRENDAN BORDELON and CHRISTINE MUI 10/21/2026 06:55 AM EDT With help from Victoria… -
Debate heats up Flint-Forstag raceU.S. Congressional candidate Sam Forstag stands in the alleyway next to his Missoula office on Regent street in Missoula, Mont, on Oct. 16. Montana U.S. House candidates Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag debated in Helena on Oct. 13, clashing… -
Vice President JD Vance to hold campaign rally in BelgradeHELENA — Vice President JD Vance will be holding a campaign rally in Montana next week – the latest event from national Republican leaders seeking to boost GOP candidates in the state ahead of Election Day. Vance is scheduled to appear… - Meet the smoke jumper running for CongressThe Washington Post Sam Forstag, 32, is trying to flip a red seat in Montana, challenging the chosen successor of Rep. Ryan Zincke (R). Sam Forstag used to parachute out of planes to fight wildfires for a living. Now, he could become the…
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Trump Rally in Kalispell, Montana: Voices from the lineThe rally was one of several late campaign stops ahead of the 2026 midterm election, held in a county where about 65% of voters backed Trump in 2024. Republican Aaron Flint, who is facing Democrat Sam Forstag in a western Montana… -
Ballot measure looks to shield Montana’s initiative process from government ‘interference’Among the raft of proposals in front of Montana voters this year is a ballot initiative to preserve the ballot initiative process itself. Organizers say “escalating attacks” on the citizen initiative process have made it nearly impossible…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions