Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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IA-03 House election: Zach Nunn vote percent
The odds
45.4%median
38%58%
Median 45.4%Middle half 42.63% – 48.08%
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.82% on Oct 19, 45.4% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 40% | 91% | 86¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 42% | 80% | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | ||
| At least 44% | 64% | 59¢ | 69¢ | $1.45 | ||
| At least 46% | 44% | 39¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | ||
| At least 48% | 26% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | |
| At least 50% | 13% | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | ||
| At least 52% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 54% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | |||
| At least 56% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IA- House, Zach Nunn
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Why some Iowa Republicans are backing Sarah Trone Garriott over Zach NunnIowa state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott talks Republican crossover voters, rising costs, healthcare, and her race against Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District in a new Gloves Off interview with COURIER founder Tara McGowan… -
Beyond the Podium: Zach Nunn talks war power resolution, immigration and social securityDES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is once again among the most competitive House races in the country, with the outcome potentially playing a role in determining which party controls the U.S. House. Political forecasters… -
Congressman Zach Nunn to Join Rep. Carter Nordman for Guthrie County Campaign Event WednesdayCongressman Zach Nunn will join Representative Carter Nordman for a campaign event in Guthrie County tomorrow (Wednesday). Nunn, who represents Iowa’s third congressional district, is seeking reelection. He faces Democratic candidate Sarah… -
Iowa Republican councilwoman calls House candidate ‘dangerous’ to children. Then alleges ‘spiritual abuse’ when her own past is exposedRepublican councilwoman Shellie Flockhart of Dallas Center, Iowa, appeared in a political ad where she accused Democratic congressional hopeful Sarah Trone Garriott of being a danger to children. But amid her remarks, Flockhart herself had… -
Woman in Controversial Political Ad Accuses Democratic Congressional Hopeful of ‘Spiritual Abuse’A local Iowa official called out Saturday for her past arrest record after appearing in a political ad ripping a Democratic Congressional candidate as “just plain dangerous” has spoken out — accusing the House hopeful of “spiritual abuse.”… -
Ad Against House Candidate Has an Ironic TwistThe Washington Post is highlighting an irony about a political ad airing in Iowa: In it, a public official calls out a Democratic candidate for the House as "just plain... Ad Against House Candidate Has an Ironic Twist The Washington Post… -
Woman Arrested for Child Endangerment Shows Up in Ad Decrying Dem as a Danger to Kids: ReportA local official in Iowa is taking heat for appearing in a political ad denouncing a Democrat as “just plain dangerous” for kids — while having once been arrested for child endangerment herself. Shellie Flockhart, who serves as a council… -
Mom who starred in $1M campaign ad accusing Democrat of endangering children is exposed as convicted child endangererBy VICTOR HELLER, US REPORTER A Republican city councilwoman who appeared in a campaign video warning that an Iowa Democratic congressional candidate posed a danger to children was previously convicted of child endangerment herself. Sarah… -
Trump heads to Iowa as Republicans fight for seats in longtime strongholdSIOUX CITY, Iowa — President Donald Trump heads to Iowa on Thursday to shore up Republicans in a state he won by 13 percentage points two years ago, but where his weakened standing and voter anxiety over his policies have complicated the… -
Woman in ad who said a Democrat endangers kids pleaded guilty to endangering kidsA Republican woman in a campaign commercial gave a grave warning about Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic candidate in one of Iowa’s most competitive House districts. “When it comes to our kids, Sarah is just plain dangerous,” says… -
AOC Goes Full Woke On 'Trans Rights' Because She's A 'Girl's Girl'Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said at a Maine town hall Thursday that she defends transgender rights because she is a "girl's girl," telling the crowd she does not support trans rights just to protect her own, but supports "the… -
POLITICO Pro: In competitive House races, Medicaid cuts are a potent issue, Democratic pollster findsThe poll assessed voters' views in the districts of GOP Reps. Zach Nunn, Tom Barrett, Max Miller and Rob Bresnahan, as well as Democrat Don Davis.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions