Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-45 House election: Derek Tran vote percent
The odds
56.79%median
48%68%
Median 56.79%Middle half 54.06% – 59.59%
How the odds have moved
Median: 57.05% on Oct 20, 56.79% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 93% | 91¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 1.8K | |
| At least 52% | 89% | 84¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 200 | |
| At least 54% | 76% | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 200 | |
| At least 56% | 57% | 53¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | ||
| At least 58% | 39% | 34¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | ||
| At least 60% | 22% | 17¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | ||
| At least 62% | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| At least 64% | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| At least 66% | 3% | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Derek Tran
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Will Derek Tran win reelection for Congressional District 45 in Orange County?Derek Tran became first Vietnamese American to represent 45th Congressional District. in 2024. Hetty Chang reports for the NBC4 News at 5 p.m. on Thursday, May 14, 2026, Congressional District 45 made history in 2024 by electing the first… -
Hakeem Jeffries headlines ‘Take Back the House’ campaign rally in Buena ParkFor the past two years, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says there’s been a lingering question that’s plagued him ever since President Donald Trump won the White House and the Republican Party took control of both the House and… -
Rep. Derek Tran and California Congressional Democrats Visit ICE Facility, Demand Accountability for Reports of Unsafe, Filthy ConditionsWashington, D.C.– U.S. Representative Derek Tran (CA-45) and members of the California Congressional delegation conducted an unannounced oversight visit to Adelanto ICE Processing Center in Adelanto, California. Alongside Rep. Rep. Derek… - Press Release: Rep. Derek Tran and California Democrats Visit Adelanto ICE Facility for OversightTran and California Democrats inspected an ICE facility, alleging unsafe conditions and seeking accountability. Lawmakers visit Adelanto ICE center: Rep. Derek Tran and several other California House Democrats said they made an unannounced…
- Press Release: Rep. Derek Tran comments on Orange County’s $125 million GKN Aerospace settlementRepresentative Tran comments on a proposed $125 million settlement over a toxic chemical incident and its evacuation impacts. Tran comments on GKN settlement: Rep. Derek Tran said he was “relieved” that Orange County and GKN Aerospace…
- Press Release: Derek Tran introduces bill to expand housing tax relief for rentersRepresentative Tran introduced legislation to provide renter tax credits and ease housing costs in Southern California. Tran presents housing-cost bill: Representative Derek Tran said he introduced the “COST” Act to help renters in…
- Press Release: Derek Tran comments on $125 million GKN Aerospace settlementDerek Tran comments on a $125 million GKN Aerospace settlement after a hazardous chemicals incident forced evacuations. Settlement announced: Orange County officials said they reached a $125 million settlement with GKN Aerospace tied to a…
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Crypto Super PAC Fairshake Pours Millions More Into Defeating Sherrod BrownCrypto’s biggest political spender is turning up the pressure on one of the industry’s fiercest critics. Fairshake has reported fresh spending to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, pushing its total outlay against the former… -
Why Is Fairshake Spending More Against Sherrod Brown?A new filing with the Federal Election Commission details fresh outlays aimed at defeating Brown. According to the filing, Defend American Jobs reported a $5.2 million media buy opposing him, followed by another roughly $1.95 million buy… -
Congresswoman Luz Rivas Joins Colleagues for Unannounced Oversight Visit at Adelanto, Raises Concerns About Inhumane ConditionsAdelanto, California — Congresswoman Luz Rivas (CA-29), representative for California’s 29th Congressional District, conducted an unannounced Congressional oversight visit of the Adelanto ICE Detention Center with her colleagues… -
Members of Congress report mold, ‘filthy’ kitchenware during unannounced Adelanto ICE facility visitA group of Democratic members of Congress said they found mold and hair in shower areas and dirty cookware and couldn’t talk with detainees when they made an unannounced tour of the Adelanto ICE Processing Center on Friday. Rep. Robert…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions