Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.68%median
14%34%
Median 28.68%Middle half 26.33% – 31.08%
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CA-22 House election: Randy Villegas vote percent
The odds
54.43%median
44%64%
Median 54.43%Middle half 51.79% – 57%
How the odds have moved
Median: 54.09% on Oct 19, 54.43% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46% | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 48% | 96% | 91¢ | $1.05 | |||
| At least 50% | 88% | 84¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 1.0K | |
| At least 52% | 74% | 69¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | ||
| At least 54% | 55% | 50¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | ||
| At least 56% | 34% | 29¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | 38.00 | |
| At least 58% | 17% | 12¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 9.00 | |
| At least 60% | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | ||
| At least 62% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Randy Villegas
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Becerra in Bakersfield: We need Randy VillegasDemocratic candidate for Congress Randy Villegas speaks with reporters at a campaign rally on Thursday. Democratic candidate for governor Xavier Becerra was in Bakersfield Thursday to rally residents in support of Randy Villegas, who’s… -
AOC stops by In-N-Out burger during California campaign tripCampaigning for lefty candidates all over the country sure does work up an appetite. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez jumped off the trail to visit an In-N-Out burger after holding an event in Bakersfield, Calif., as part of a nationwide tour… -
Randy Villegas is looking to oust a ‘chickensh-t’ RepublicanBetter Know a Democrat is an interview series to give voters a closer look at candidates in competitive races across the U.S. California’s 22nd District is one of many to feel the ongoing impacts of President Donald Trump’s mass… -
A GOP congressman voted to cut Medicaid. It covers 62% of his district. Can he win?Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., leaves the stage after speaking at a campaign event in Bakersfield, Calif. on Sept. 30, 2026. Jae C. Hong/AP hide caption Ulises Hernandez, of Bakersfield, Calif., has had health coverage through Medicaid for… -
School board attacks on Villegas proven to be misleadingVillegas did not make the decision and there was no public record of the individual’s conduct. A new attack ad uses misleading claims to suggest Randy Villegas voted to let a sexual predator work in a Visalia, California school. The… -
AOC rallies nearly 800 in Bakersfield for Villegas as Central Valley congressional race heats upBAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KERO) — Nearly 800 people filled the Nile Theater Friday night as New York Democratic Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez made her way to Bakersfield to rally support for Democratic candidate Randy Villegas… -
2026 midterm elections: 21 key House races to followKamau Marshall, consultant and chief strategist speaks with LiveNOW's Ryan Schmelz on how the Democrats are looking to take back control of Congress. Control of the U.S. House will be on the line in November, with Republicans defending… -
Election 2026 House CaliforniaPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Randy Villegas, Democratic candidate for congress in the state's 22nd District, waits to be introduced during a rally with California Democratic… -
GOP Congressman in California Swing-District Race Defends Vote for Medicaid CutsThis article by Jackie Fortiér first appeared in KFF Health News, republished with permission. BAKERSFIELD, Calif. — Ulises Hernandez has had health coverage through Medicaid for as long as he can remember. But he had never waited as long… -
'I'm livid': Medicaid patient who went through ER nightmare has message for GOP lawmakerA Medicaid patient from Bakersfield, California, is blasting Republican Rep. David Valadao over the Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s tax law, KFF Health News reported in a story carried by NPR. Ulises Hernandez, 41, who has been on Medicaid his… -
The Machine Behind the Democratic Party’s Radical TransformationFollow the Money: The Donors, Politicians and PACs Seeking to Bring Down the “American Empire”. WATCH to find out what’s inside our latest report A network of far-left political action committees (PACs) is working with Islamic groups to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions