Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
28.65%median
14%34%
Median 28.65%Middle half 26.29% – 31.08%
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CA-13 House election: Adam Gray vote percent
The odds
57.6%median
48%68%
Median 57.6%Middle half 54.88% – 60.47%
How the odds have moved
Median: 58.49% on Oct 20, 57.6% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 95% | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 2.7K | |
| At least 52% | 92% | 88¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 2.1K | |
| At least 54% | 82% | 77¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | ||
| At least 56% | 66% | 61¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | ||
| At least 58% | 46% | 41¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 298 | |
| At least 60% | 28% | ▲ 1 | 24¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | |
| At least 62% | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | ||
| At least 64% | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | |||
| At least 66% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Adam Gray
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Politics Focus | Big media can’t get enough of Adam Gray v. Kevin Lincoln House 13 raceNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Big shoutout to all of you who came to our VotingMatters event last week. If you missed the invigorating discussion (and free tacos), here are a couple of things I said about local ballot measures… -
Adam Gray’s California Coalition Is Cracking As Former Backers Rally Behind His GOP ChallengerCalifornia’s 13th Congressional District is shaping up to be a battleground this November as Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton, businessman, and pastor, is challenging incumbent Democrat Rep. Adam Gray. While polling… -
WATCH | Rep. Adam Gray discusses local and foreign issues after GOP opponent Kevin Lincoln declines debateNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley In 25 minutes, viewers can learn what Democratic Rep. Adam Gray thinks about ICE detentions in the Valley, high-speed rail in Merced, suffering in Palestine and Israel, and the war in Iran. They… -
AOC, Newsom, Jeffries swing through California to help Democrats in tight racesBAKERSFIELD — Top Democratic and Republican leaders are sweeping through California as the Nov. 3 election approaches, evidence of the state’s pivotal role in deciding which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives and the fate… -
House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigns for Kevin Lincoln in competitive Central Valley congressional raceOctober 21, 2026 / 10:36 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Stockton on Wednesday to campaign for Republican Kevin Lincoln, stepping up GOP efforts to reclaim California's 13th Congressional District less than… -
Hillary Clinton scolds Matthew McConaughey for 'unfortunate' video supporting independent candidatesFormer first lady Hillary Clinton criticized actor Matthew McConaughey for his Instagram video encouraging people to check out independent candidates. During a podcast interview Wednesday, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton… -
Obama prepares to rally with Michigan Dem who once delivered scathing verdict on his presidencyUndecided Black voters in Detroit told Fox News Digital that former President Barack Obama’s endorsement isn’t moving the needle for them. Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is set to rally with former President Barack Obama… -
Mamdani-backed congressional candidate says he was detained by Israeli military'The Five' comments on the Democratic Party's messaging and internal division as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces criticism over his policy agenda. The panel also discusses the arrests of Democratic Socialists of America members… -
Republicans are spending millions to oust a Democrat who won by 187 votes. Should he worry?This story was originally published by CalMatters. Democratic Rep. Adam Gray knows all too well that every vote makes a difference. This year Gray will likely benefit from the blue wave that polls show is sweeping the nation, as well as… -
A California Town Swung Heavily for Trump. Is It Swinging Back?High prices and an immigration crackdown hit hard in the little Central Valley city of Livingston. On a sunny September afternoon, Juan Carlos stands behind the counter of his compact variety shop in California’s Central Valley, notes the… - California gas prices have long plagued Democratic candidates. This year is differentIn California, gas prices remain the highest in the nation. And pain at the pump has been a hot topic in the state's most competitive races for Congress. The issue has long favored California's Republicans. But the war in Iran has given…
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U.S. Rep. Josh Harder looks to beat back Lodi’s John McBride in redrawn District 9Amid the dizzying array of candidates in this year’s Nov. 3 general election, remembering the candidates in District 9 for U.S. Congress is easy: It’s the coach vs. the congressman. The coach is John McBride, a Republican who spent decades…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions