Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31 · $6.1K today · $1.3M traded · $307K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

82%Nicolás Maduro

Nicolás Maduro82%▲ 6
Delcy Rodríguez23%▼ 1
María Corina Machado5%▲ 1
Marco Rubio2%
Donald Trump2%
Vladimir Padrino López1%
Jorge Rodríguez1%
Edmundo González1%
Dinorah Figuera1%
Juan Guaidó1%
Pete Hegseth1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón1%

6 more

Miguel Rodríguez Torres<1%
Frank Donovan<1%
Richard Grenell<1%
Evan Pettus<1%
Dan Caine<1%
Stephen Miller<1%

How the odds have moved

Nicolás Maduro: 76% on Oct 20, 82% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Nicolás Maduro	82%	▲ 6	82¢	84¢	$1.19	1.0M
Delcy Rodríguez	23%	▼ 1	23¢	25¢	$4.00	1.4M
María Corina Machado	5%	▲ 1	4¢	8¢	$13.16	1.2M
Marco Rubio	2%		2¢	2¢	$52.63	363.3K
Donald Trump	2%		2¢	2¢	$52.63	369.9K
Vladimir Padrino López	1%			3¢	$35.71	71.6K
Jorge Rodríguez	1%		0¢	2¢	$43.48	44.4K
Edmundo González	1%		1¢	2¢	$52.63	442.2K
Dinorah Figuera	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	21.5K
Juan Guaidó	1%		0¢	2¢	$52.63	7.0K
Pete Hegseth	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	131.9K
Diosdado Cabello Rondón	1%		0¢	1¢	$83.33	88.2K
Miguel Rodríguez Torres	<1%			1¢	$90.91	2.7K
Frank Donovan	<1%		0¢	1¢		116.7K
Richard Grenell	<1%		0¢	1¢		83.1K
Evan Pettus	<1%		0¢	0¢		183.2K
Dan Caine	<1%		0¢	1¢		188.3K
Stephen Miller	<1%		0¢	0¢		68.5K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro

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Delcy Rodriguez: Latest News and UpdatesSouth China Morning Post · 2 days agoThe latest news and top stories on Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela. Following the abduction of leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a US military operation on January 3, 2026, Rodriguez was sworn in as the country’s…
Trump Finds Potential Election Matchup Between Delcy Rodríguez and María Corina Machado "Intriguing"CubaHeadlines · 3 days agoThursday, October 22, 2026 by Samantha Mendoza U.S. President Donald Trump has described the possibility of a presidential election face-off between Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, and opposition leader María Corina Machado…
Venezuela’s Acting Pres. Delcy Rodríguez Meets 2015 Assembly Delegations - teleSUR EnglishteleSURenglish · 3 days agoOctober 22, 2026 Hour: 11:50 pm The meeting presented the balance and details of the third cycle of conversations held in Caracas, a process that included six working sessions structured in two plenary sessions and fifteen meetings. On…
Does Delcy Rodríguez have any options?Links · 3 days agoSome critics of the leftist government question the credibility of Rodríguez’s claim. Her version, however, makes perfect sense. Trump himself repeatedly made similar threats in public, though couched in more oblique language. And…
In the Venezuelan stronghold of Doral, some voters discouraged by Trump's policies ahead of midterms: "I feel, in a way, betrayed."CBS News · 27 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 9:47 PM EDT / CBS News Latinos voted in record numbers for President Trump in 2024, but polling shows that voting bloc is up for grabs in the midterms. And one region that reflects that shift is Florida's Miami-Dade…
Venezuela Marchers Demand Election DateThe Rio Times · 48 h agoOpposition supporters marched across Venezuela on Thursday, 22 October 2026, demanding that the government set a date for a presidential election. The marches, which followed the latest round of US-backed talks, are part of our Venezuela…
What Is Going On Between Venezuela and the United States?The Rio Times · 2 days agoVENEZUELA · UNITED STATES · EXPLAINER Live updates: Venezuela-US tensions, every story as it happens → A guide to Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition, US sanctions relief, the New York criminal case and what it means for American investors…
She Fled Maduro’s Regime. Washington Brought Her Back to Negotiate With It.Hindustan Times · 22 h agoCARACAS—When Dinorah Figuera first sat down for talks on restoring democratic institutions here, she faced one of the most powerful figures in the autocratic regime that drove her into exile. “I am not afraid of you,” she said she told…
Curaçao Chronicle | Report: Trump Administration Planning Changes to Delcy Rodríguez's Government and Venezuela's Oil IndustryCuraçao Chronicle · 5 days agoWASHINGTON, CARACAS – The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing a political and economic restructuring plan for Venezuela that could involve replacing officials associated with Nicolás Maduro, introducing…
Machado says Venezuelans are "very grateful" to Trump for ousting Maduro, after he suggests she can't lead the countryCBS News · 4 days agoUpdated on: January 6, 2026 / 10:49 PM EST / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado hailed President Trump for removing Nicolás Maduro from power and argued her coalition has a mandate to lead the country moving forward…
Venezuelans call for elections in first national protest in nearly two yearsThe Japan Times · 3 days agoThe Japan Times CARACAS/MARACAY/VALENCIA, VENEZUELA, – Thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets on Thursday in the first nationwide opposition protest in nearly two years, as demonstrators demanded free elections and other political…
US welcomes conclusion of latest Venezuela democratic transition talksMacau Business · 3 days agoThe United States on Thursday praised the conclusion of the latest round of talks toward a democratic transition between Venezuela’s interim government and opposition representatives. The US-sponsored talks on transitioning from the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onperson, official government website, agency

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 9:59 AM ET

Traded$1.3M (5,814,797 contracts)

Today$6.1K

This week$121K

At stake$307K

In the news87 headlines today, 443 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Edmundo González Urrutia officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions