Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31 · $1 today · $2K traded · $894 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

66%Shell

Shell66%▲ 1
ExxonMobil21%▲ 1
ConocoPhillips13%▲ 4

How the odds have moved

Shell: 63% on Oct 20, 66% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Shell	66%	▲ 1	63¢	70¢	$1.43	2.7K
ExxonMobil	21%	▲ 1	17¢	25¢	$4.00	1.2K
ConocoPhillips	13%	▲ 4	10¢	16¢	$6.25	137

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuelan

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Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to Venezuela from exile for first time since Maduro’s ousterNew York Post · 25 h agoNobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado reemerged from exile in Venezuela on Sunday for the first time since late last year, when she fled due to fears about her safety. Machado, who had been banned from running for…
Exiled Venezuelan opposition leader announces her returnthe Guardian · 27 h agoNobel laureate María Corina Machado’s return after almost a year in exile is unlikely to please interim president Delcy Rodríguez The Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has announced she has returned to Venezuela, almost a…
Opposition leader Machado returns to Venezuela from exileCNN · 28 h agoAfter more than 10 months in exile, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado has returned home to a political landscape that has been reshaped by her ally the United States without her involvement. “I am here…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Machado returns after months in exileBBC News · 28 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has returned home to a fraught political landscape after over 10 months in exile. "I am here. With you," Machado wrote on X on Sunday. Her ally, former presidential candidate Edmundo…
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exileNPR · 28 h agoCARACAS, Venezuela — Opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, about a month before the U.S. military deposed the country's then-President Nicolás Maduro…
Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado returns to country after 10-month exileCBS News · 27 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 12:57 PM EDT / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado is back in her home country after nearly a year in exile, her team confirmed to CBS News on Sunday. "I am here. With you,"…
Venezuela's opposition leader Machado returns after months in exile, as doubts over democracy deepenCNBC · 27 h agoOpposition leader and Nobel laureate María Corina Machado reappeared in Venezuela Sunday for the first time since December, returning from exile as doubts about the country's democratic future — and the role of the U.S. — grow. It was her…
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroadFox News · 27 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado joins Rachel Campos-Duffy in Panama to warn Americans about the dangers of socialism ahead of the midterms. Machado shares a direct message to President Donald Trump, praising his…
Venezuelans in South Florida weigh Maria Corina Machado's return and what comes next for the countryCBS News · 20 h agoOctober 25, 2026 / 8:11 PM EDT / CBS Miami Patrons at a Venezuelan restaurant in South Florida gathered Sunday to discuss news of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado's return to Venezuela, weighing questions about the country's future…
South Florida Venezuelans react to Maria Corina Machado's return to the country after hiatusCBS News · 20 h agoCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas 5:30pm
In the Venezuelan stronghold of Doral, some voters discouraged by Trump's policies ahead of midterms: "I feel, in a way, betrayed."CBS News · 43 h agoOctober 24, 2026 / 9:47 PM EDT / CBS News Latinos voted in record numbers for President Trump in 2024, but polling shows that voting bloc is up for grabs in the midterms. And one region that reflects that shift is Florida's Miami-Dade…
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado returns to VenezuelaJust The News · 26 h agoVenezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela on Sunday after nearly a year abroad, saying she was back to stand with her supporters as she pushes for free and fair elections. “I’m…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$2K (3,964 contracts)

Today$1

At stake$894

In the news51 headlines today, 375 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

ConocoPhillipsCOP · about the company151.37+0.38%
Shell PLCSHEL · about the company106.91−1.17%
ExxonMobil Holdings CorporationXOM · about the company184.54+0.73%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions