How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
6%5.0%
4.5%13%
Install
USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?
The odds
60%median
54%72%
Median 60%Middle half 56.73% – 62.75%
How the odds have moved
Median: 60.05% on Oct 20, 60% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56.0% | 79% | 75¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 73.00 | |
| Above 58.0% | 68% | 65¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 3.2K | |
| Above 60.0% | 50% | 46¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 1.7K | |
| Above 62.0% | 31% | ▼ 1 | 27¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 504 |
| Above 64.0% | 15% | 12¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 3.1K | |
| Above 66.0% | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 273 | |
| Above 68.0% | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 20.00 | ||
| Above 70.0% | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 743 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: USDT, T-bills
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All jobs ›Vermont total milk production in 2026
2.52median
2.352.65
Median 2.52Middle half 2.49 – 2.54
China unemployment rate in October (China UE Oct 2026)
5.09%median
4.5%5.7%
Median 5.09%Middle half 5.04% – 5.16%
Port of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
8.83median
8.309.30
Median 8.83Middle half 8.70 – 8.94
Russia unemployment rate in September (Russia UE Oct 2026)
2.31%median
2%2.7%
Median 2.31%Middle half 2.14% – 2.41%
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
84,333median
79,00093,000
Median 84,333Middle half 83,635 – 84,871
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.