Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
4%December 31
- October 311%
- December 314%▼ 1
Install
Number of US data centers in 2026?
The odds
5,209median
5,0006,100
Median 5,209Middle half 5,111 – 5,640
How the odds have moved
Median: 5,064 on Oct 20, 5,209 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 4,800 | 99% | ▲ 14 | $1.01 | 13.9K | ||
| ✓ At least 4,900 | 99% | ▲ 27 | $1.01 | 4.9K | ||
| ✓ At least 5,000 | 99% | ▲ 42 | $1.01 | 1.6K | ||
| At least 5,100 | 78% | 81¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 342 | |
| At least 5,200 | 51% | ▲ 6 | 47¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 3.6K |
| At least 5,300 | 40% | ▲ 5 | 36¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 787 |
| At least 5,400 | 32% | ▲ 2 | 31¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 89.00 |
| At least 5,500 | 28% | ▲ 2 | 27¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 155 |
| At least 5,600 | 27% | ▲ 3 | 23¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | |
| At least 5,700 | 22% | ▲ 3 | 18¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | |
| At least 5,800 | 18% | ▲ 2 | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | |
| At least 5,900 | 14% | ▲ 2 | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | |
| At least 6,000 | 10% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All tech & science ›Which company has the best AI model end of October?
85%Google
- Google85%▼ 5
- Anthropic13%▲ 5
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
54%Anthropic
- Anthropic54%▲ 4
- Google33%▼ 8
- OpenAI6%
12 more
- Meta1%
- xAI1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Microsoft<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Amazon<1%
- Baidu<1%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
58%No release by October 31
- No release by October 3158%▼ 7
- October 2720%
- October 2910%▲ 7
11 more
- October 264%▼ 1
- October 284%▲ 1
- October 302%▲ 1
- October 201%▼ 12
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- October 25<1%▼ 1
- October 19<1%▼ 2
- October 21<1%▼ 5
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 23<1%▼ 4
- October 24<1%
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
1,410median
1,3801,480
Median 1,410Middle half 1,405 – 1,415
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Nov 10, 2026even chance by
- October 21<1%▼ 12
- October 22<1%▼ 14
- October 24<1%▼ 1
2 more
- October 3141%▲ 6
- December 3194%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions