Texas Senate winner? (2026)
64%James Talarico
- James Talarico64%▼ 1
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
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Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
The odds
94%Tina Kotek
- Tina Kotek94%▼ 1
- Troy Jackson84%▼ 1
- Kathy Hochul45%
- Peggy Flanagan40%▼ 2
- Keisha Lance Bottoms36%▲ 3
- Abdul El-Sayed22%▼ 1
- Chris Pappas22%▼ 1
- Angie Nixon19%
- David Jolly14%
How the odds have moved
Tina Kotek: 95% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Kotek | 94% | ▼ 1 | 91¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 6.8K |
| Troy Jackson | 84% | ▼ 1 | 83¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 4.4K |
| Kathy Hochul | 45% | 44¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 4.0K | |
| Peggy Flanagan | 40% | ▼ 2 | 37¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 10.6K |
| Keisha Lance Bottoms | 36% | ▲ 3 | 34¢ | 37¢ | $2.70 | 6.7K |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 22% | ▼ 1 | 19¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.2K |
| Chris Pappas | 22% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 985 |
| Angie Nixon | 19% | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 6.4K | |
| David Jolly | 14% | 11¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 8.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Kamala Harris, Tina Kotek, Troy Jackson
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WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NHFormer Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns alongside Democratic Senate nominee Chris Pappas at a rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Chris Pappas for campaign rally in Portsmouth, NH Former Vice President… -
‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala HarrisFox News analyst Raymond Arroyo discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ word of the day and the latest WNBA controversy on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ ... ‘Friday Follies’: New town, new accent for Kamala Harris Fox News analyst Raymond… -
Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme CourtFox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about the Supreme Court on ‘Fox & Friends.’ ... Kamala Harris: We can’t count on the Supreme Court Fox News contributor Marc Thiessen discusses… -
Actor Dean Cain slams Kamala HarrisFox News Actor Dean Cain slams Kamala Harris Actor Dean Cain discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign trail tour on 'The Will Cain Show.' Actor Dean Cain discusses former Vice President Kamala Harris' comeback tour as she… -
AOC campaigns for Troy Jackson in Maine; Tafoya makes strides in MinnesotaNew York progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is campaigning for Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson. Meanwhile, the Senate race in typically blue Minnesota is tightening. CBS News' Taurean Small reports. AOC supports… -
Greg Gutfeld: Kamala Harris is a firefighter who shows up after the fireFox News Greg Gutfeld: Kamala Harris is a firefighter who shows up after the fire ‘The Five’ co-hosts discuss former Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech in Las Vegas. -
AOC campaigns for Troy Jackson in Maine and slams Susan CollinsCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. AOC campaigns for… -
WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at Mississippi rallyFormer Vice President Kamala Harris joins Democratic nominee Scott Colom at a rally in Columbus, Mississippi, to energize voters with 12 days until the midterm elections. WATCH LIVE: Kamala Harris joins Dem Senate nominee Scott Colom at… -
Kamala Harris Stumps in Mississippi as GOP Moves to Protect Senate SeatOct 22, 2026 at 04:15 PM EDT Former Vice President Kamala Harris is campaigning in Mississippi on Thursday for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom, as Republicans face an unexpectedly competitive contest in a state President… -
Kamala Harris gets crickets from Mississippi rally crowd after butchering motivational quote: ‘Let me repeat that’Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ attempt to inspire voters at a Democratic rally in Mississippi fell flat Thursday after she was forced to repeat a confusing quote in a far-from-full high school gym. “You know, I mentor a lot of young… - Kamala Harris rallies for Mississippi Senate candidate as she elevates profileBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The former vice…
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WATCH LIVE: Rep. AOC and Troy Jackson hold student town hall in MaineRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joins Maine U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson at a "Students vs. Billionaires" town hall in Portland to address rising tuition costs, rent prices, and corporate influence in government. WATCH LIVE: Rep. AOC and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions