Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 177.0 – 200.8
Install
Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December? (Before Dec 1, 2026)
The odds
27%Inheritance Tax Rise
- Inheritance Tax Rise27%
- Mansion Tax Increase10%
- Annual Wealth Tax8%▼ 1
- Council Tax Replacement8%
- Capital Gains Tax Rise6%
How the odds have moved
Inheritance Tax Rise: 27% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inheritance Tax Rise | 27% | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 56.00 | |
| Mansion Tax Increase | 10% | 7¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 237 | |
| Annual Wealth Tax | 8% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 30.00 |
| Council Tax Replacement | 8% | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 368 | |
| Capital Gains Tax Rise | 6% | 4¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 5.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Inheritance Tax Rise, Mansion Tax Increase, Annual Wealth Tax
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Democrat Campaigns on 'Working Families Guarantee' for FloridaDemocrat Campaigns on ‘Working Families Guarantee’ for Florida West Orlando News Democrat Campaigns on ‘Working Families Guarantee’ for Florida A statewide Democrat is campaigning on a “working families guarantee” for Florida with a lot of… -
Governments need more revenue, Part Two: How Australia could raise itIf Australia needs substantially more revenue, the options include taxing carbon and resource profits, taxing wealth more heavily and reforming the GST. In Part One of this article I made the case that the Australian government needs to… - Good News for XRP Holders from SwitzerlandXRP investors in Switzerland could avoid capital gains tax on profits worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, provided they meet the country’s requirements for private investors. Diana used an example in which an investor purchases 100,000…
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United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby Wants A 100% Inheritance Tax. He Says He'd Pay It."Wealth inequality has become a danger to our society, and we need to address that," Kirby said. He called for a national wealth tax and inheritance taxes approaching 100% above an unspecified threshold, adding, "I would pay them." The… -
‘Not About Letters’: Florida Dem Angie Nixon Defends Socialist Ties, Calls For DOJ Probe Of Sen. Ashley MoodyFlorida State Representative Angie Nixon defended her progressive platform, discussed her affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America, and sharply criticized her opponent during a Sunday appearance on CBS News’ “Face the Nation… - Continue reading this article... Start a free trial now for access to breaking news of the regulatory environment and legislative change happening in wealth management. You are currently not logged in, login to view the full article start by clicking this button. Need a subscription, fill out the form here or contact [email protected]Hungary’s new government has proposed an annual wealth tax of one percent on net assets above HUF 1 billion, equivalent to approximately €2.7 million, rising to 1.5 percent on wealth exceeding HUF 100 billion. Tax concerns prompt more…
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White House Puts $49 Trillion Price Tag On Radical Left’s Socialist AgendaThe White House just put a number on the radical Left’s socialist wish list, and it is almost too big to comprehend: roughly $49 trillion over ten years. That works out to approximately $355,000 for every American household. Speaker Mike… -
Mike Johnson Says 700,000 Louisiana Seniors Could Benefit From ‘No Tax on Social Security’ — Here’s the CatchHouse Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said nearly 68% of workers in Louisiana could benefit from the overtime tax deduction, while 700,000 senior citizens could benefit from a new senior tax deduction that can reduce taxes for older Americans… -
Beware the Global Wealth TaxThe left has a solution to the problem that wealthy people escape high and confiscatory tax rates by moving out: a global tax covering every corner of the planet – presumably enforced by? Who knows? Maybe this is a job for the United… - Terence Corcoran: Is Carney's Canada joining the UN war on inequality?So far, there's been no response to an invitation from UN economist Joseph Stiglitz to help lead international panel No surprise, then, that Prime Minister Mark Carney has so far failed to publicly respond to a request that he enlist…
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Guest commentary: Voters should look around, choose wisely Nov. 3Recently the White House Council of Economic Advisers published a 92-page report — “The Real Cost of Socialism in America.” It exposed a dangerous financial burden if the Democratic Socialists of America policies are implemented; nearly an… - Ireland’s richest 10% own nearly half the country’s wealthNEARLY HALF OF the total net wealth in Ireland belongs to the richest 10% of households, figures show. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has released a report on hypothetical tax scenarios and their outcomes for different…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions