Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.4 – 200.9
Install
Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
15%John Healey
- John Healey15%▲ 1
- Miatta Fahnbulleh10%
- Angela Eagle6%▼ 2
- Louise Haigh4%
- Shabana Mahmood4%
- Wes Streeting4%
- Yvette Cooper4%
- Alex Norris4%
- Pat McFadden4%
- Douglas Alexander4%
- Anneliese Midgley4%
- Alan Campbell4%
11 more
- Indeterminate4%
- Angela Rayner3%
- Stephen Kinnock3%
- Angela Smith3%
- Lucy Powell3%
- Jonathan Reynolds3%
- Heidi Alexander3%
- Lisa Nandy3%
- Chris Bryant3%
- Bridget Phillipson3%
- Ed Miliband1%
How the odds have moved
John Healey: 14% on Oct 20, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey | 15% | ▲ 1 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 1.0K |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 10% | 6¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.0K | |
| Angela Eagle | 6% | ▼ 2 | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.0K |
| Louise Haigh | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.0K | ||
| Shabana Mahmood | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.2K | ||
| Wes Streeting | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.4K | ||
| Yvette Cooper | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.0K | ||
| Alex Norris | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.4K | ||
| Pat McFadden | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.2K | ||
| Douglas Alexander | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.0K | ||
| Anneliese Midgley | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.3K | ||
| Alan Campbell | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 3.6K | ||
| Indeterminate | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.0K | ||
| Angela Rayner | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.0K | ||
| Stephen Kinnock | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.0K | ||
| Angela Smith | 3% | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.0K | ||
| Lucy Powell | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.3K | ||
| Jonathan Reynolds | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.1K | ||
| Heidi Alexander | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.6K | ||
| Lisa Nandy | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.2K | ||
| Chris Bryant | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.0K | ||
| Bridget Phillipson | 3% | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.0K | ||
| Ed Miliband | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Burnham Cabinet, John Healey, Miatta Fahnbulleh
Search ›-
Can John Healey make a dent in the cost of living crisis in his first budget?Much of the Burnham project depends on how the budget is received, as promise of ‘breathing space’ is a two-way street You be the chancellor: play our budget game to see if you can balance the books Every Sunday night, the chancellor, John… -
John Healey pledges to use budget to harness power of AI to bolster Britain’s securityChancellor says government to commit hundreds of millions to develop ‘distinctively British’ approach to AI John Healey has pledged to use Wednesday’s budget to harness the power of artificial intelligence to bolster Britain’s security and… -
Andy Burnham and John Healey set to defy eco-zealot Ed Miliband by giving Rosebank oil field green lightBy GLEN OWEN and DAN HODGES, DAILY MAIL COLUMNIST Andy Burnham is planning to defy Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband by giving the green light to drill the North Sea's Rosebank oil field. Whitehall sources revealed that the Prime Minister and… -
John Healey to announce billions more for defence at budgetThe Times John Healey to announce billions more for defence at budget Investment with echoes of PFI is considered a ‘downpayment’ towards Nato’s 3 per cent target £1 for 3 months Enjoy unlimited access to all articles. Ends soon. Enjoy… -
Debt of £3trn looms large over John Healey’s first budgetThe Times Debt of £3trn looms large over John Healey’s first budget Encouraging figures on growth and the labour market will have buoyed the chancellor, but there is darker data on borrowing and inflation £1 for 3 months Enjoy unlimited… -
Chancellor John Healey 'must resign' if he fails to find cash for armed forcesThe Chancellor is told that by the end of Wednesday's Budget statement he must resign if he has not delivered the extra funding needed to rescue armed forces Chancellor John Healey has been told he must resign if he fails to set out how… - Miatta Fahnbulleh Says She Will Make Final Decision on Rosebank Oil FieldPublished 22 Oct 2026, 17:24 UTC Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh will make the final decision on Rosebank oil field. Jackdaw approval expected as Rosebank decision remains pending. A wider view of the story Directory totals describe our…
-
John Healey hit with devastating resignation days before Budget as advisor warns of 'Liz Truss-style crisis''How do you go bankrupt? First slowly, then very quickly,' former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane said WATCH: John Healey previews upcoming budget John Healey has been hit with a devastating resignation just days before delivering… -
Defence must be top priority for Labour when John Healey delivers his first Budget on WednesdayWHEN John Healey rises to his feet to deliver his first Budget on Wednesday his top priority ought to be defence spending. As a man who quit the Cabinet because of delays to military funding, surely no subject could be closer to our new… -
John Healey rejects calls to raise capital gains tax at the BudgetJohn Healey has rejected calls to hike capital gains tax at the Budget, amid concerns it could hamper economic growth. Several prominent Labour voices have called in recent months for a rise in the tax, which applies to the profit made… -
John Healey must once again grasp that national security is paramount, ALEX BRUMMER saysUnless Chancellor John Healey proposes to pull the proverbial rabbit out of a hat in Wednesday’s Budget, the most alarming missing element is a big uplift in outlays on national security. Britain has tumbled down the Nato league table of… -
John Healey to deliver his first Budget on Wednesday: What do we know and what tax rises are on the cards?By ANGHARAD CARRICK, BUSINESS NEWS EDITOR and HELEN CRANE, DEPUTY EDITOR, THIS IS MONEY John Healey will deliver his first Budget as Chancellor in a few days. Since his appointment in July, the Middle East conflict has shown no signs of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions