Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 284.2 – 308.2
Install
Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget? (October 28, 2026 Budget)
The odds
89%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 88% on Oct 19, 89% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 89% | ▲ 1 | 85¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 24.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Budget
Search ›-
Laura Pomfret's budget templateLaura Pomfret has a handy budget template to help manage your finances, like a 'profit and loss' account. Here is the budget template as a downloadable word document Here, external, external is a link to the UK Government's benefits… -
Has Healey’s military-style budget secrecy really played out so differently to past budgets?Chancellor was said to be worried about market-sensitive leaks, yet significant policies have been heavily trailed in the media The public has been told repeatedly that John Healey is so concerned about budget leaks that he has set up… -
Healey to shield low-income pensioners from income tax in the BudgetPensioners on low incomes will be shielded from income tax by Chancellor John Healey in his first Budget on Wednesday. The full, flat-rate state pension is expected to increase by 3.9% to £13,036.40 a year from April. This would take the… -
Liverpool's budget Alex Scott alternative revealedLiverpool are beginning to action their transfer plans for the winter window. The Reds' start to the season has been hit and miss, and there are a few clear positions that could use with being strengthened in January. Undoubtedly the most… -
London Mayor Sadiq Khan urges UK to go pro-business ahead of budgetMonday - Friday, 08:00 - 11:00 CET | 14:00 - 17:00 HK/SIN Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London, discusses the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street and what he wants to see ahead of the U.K. budget on Oct. 28. London Mayor Sadiq Khan urges UK to go… -
'Budget tax reprieve for pensioners' and 'Meghan dad net to widen'As the lead up to the Budget builds, the Times says the chancellor is "set to offer tax reprieve for pensioners". The paper says John Healey is expected to protect about one million low-income pensioners from paying income tax by raising… -
Healey's Budget needs to sustain the stronger economy through gathering cloudsThere have been almost no Budget leaks. The chancellor's aides are using intelligence-style security measures to guard its secrets: the Budget has been split into "compartments" with very few given access to all of them. There are… -
Salon owners urge Budget VAT cut as staffing pressures growMarcus Perkins said rising costs were making it harder for salons to employ staff and train apprentices After 22 years running a salon, Marcus Perkins says he is increasingly worried about the future of the hair and beauty industry. Rising… -
BBC Audio | Westminster Hour | What's the chancellor planning in his first Budget?Copyright 2026 BBC. All rights reserved. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking. What's the chancellor planning in his first Budget? Available for 29 days Radio 4's Sunday… -
2 political experts question Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson's tax proposals for 2027 budgetOctober 25, 2026 / 10:55 AM CDT / CBS Chicago Two Chicago political experts on CBS News Chicago's "The Angle" said the tax proposals in Mayor Brandon Johnson's budget plan are more regressive than the mayor claims. Former Chicago Public… -
Budget airline expands its footprint with 11 new tropical flight routes beginning in NovemberTravel expert Colleen Kelly on Southwest Airlines ending its free luggage policy and the U.S. renewing its level 2 travel advisory for Italy over terrorism risks. Southwest Airlines will add 11 new nonstop international routes to its… -
Wales needs budget boost, says finance ministerElin Jones has warned there could be tough times ahead for the Welsh NHS unless Wales gets more money in the budget The Welsh government is facing its worst settlement since before the pandemic unless it gets a cash boost in Wednesday's…
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193.8median
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Feb 18, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
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- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%
- Before Apr 1, 202718%▲ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%▲ 1
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202732%▲ 1
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%
- Before Jul 1, 202857%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.4median
160230
Median 197.4Middle half 189.4 – 202.7
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.7median
140230
Median 189.7Middle half 176.3 – 200.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
297.3median
250340
Median 297.3Middle half 290.4 – 306.7
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions