Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027
418,182median
200,000600,000
Median 418,182Middle half 395,455 – 496,053
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Tesla production in Q1 2027
The odds
433,333median
300,000600,000
Median 433,333Middle half 400,714 – 463,636
How the odds have moved
Median: 433,152 on Oct 19, 433,333 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 325,000 | 94% | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 193 | |
| Above 350,000 | 87% | 82¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 280 | |
| Above 375,000 | 82% | ▼ 1 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | |
| Above 400,000 | 76% | ▲ 1 | 71¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | 105 |
| Above 425,000 | 58% | 55¢ | 61¢ | $1.64 | 241 | |
| Above 450,000 | 34% | 30¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | ||
| Above 475,000 | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 2.00 | |
| Above 500,000 | 8% | 3¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Above 525,000 | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 156 | ||
| Above 550,000 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| Above 575,000 | 4% | 7¢ | $14.29 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla
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Exclusive / SpaceX-Tesla merger could face antitrust scrutinyCould the Tesla-SpaceX merger that Elon Musk floated this week pose antitrust problems? One former Justice Department official told Semafor that the risks are real. Antitrust regulators view such “vertical” mergers as pro-competition, the… -
With earnings in rearview mirror, SpaceX-Tesla merger chatter takes center stageElon Musk told Tesla shareholders on Wednesday that, when it comes to a potential merger with SpaceX, he’d already “said everything that should be said.” Tesla’s head of investor relations told analysts before opening the call to their… -
'Nothing short of a miracle;' 2 adults, 2 kids survive Tesla cliff plunge at Devil's SlideUpdated on: January 2, 2023 / 8:17 PM PST / CBS San Francisco PACIFICA (CBS SF) – A Tesla drove off a cliff near Devil's Slide Monday morning, with two adults and two children surviving the plunge. UPDATE: Tesla driver arrested for… -
SpaceX Filing Gives Elon Musk the Final Word on Tesla Merger He Says He’s Staying Out OfElon Musk recused himself from the SpaceX-Tesla merger talks. His company’s SEC filing suggests that doesn’t mean much. SpaceX’s October 22 10-Q disclosed that any potential combination with Tesla “would be subject to further approval by… -
Tesla cuts capex forecast to about $20 BillionTesla faces intense market scrutiny as Nancy Tengler and Ross Gerber join Liz Claman to debate the automaker's autonomous future. Tengler analyzes the Optimus robot delivery timeline, while Gerber raises safety concerns about Cybercab… -
Tesla is prepping a Cybercab onslaughtBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Tesla says it is preparing to launch its shiny gold Cybercab in new markets outside its home of Austin, Texas, in a bid to “literally take over every part of terrestrial… -
Sure, let’s smoosh SpaceX and Tesla together, who caresYes, of course there are pay package incentives in play for Musk. But that’s not all. Oh sure, SpaceX’s credit risk is pretty high because it’s about to borrow another $40 billion to spend on Nvidia chips, but who cares about that? SpaceX… -
The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom NarayanTom Narayan, lead equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX, takeaways from Tesla in Q3 and more. The impact of a Tesla/SpaceX merger according to Tom Narayan -
SpaceX-Tesla-merger-Ray WangAnalyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens CNBC Analyst sees boost to SpaceX shares in long run if Tesla merger happens -
SpaceX now says potential blockbuster Tesla merger would need Elon Musk’s approvalSpaceX said Thursday its potential merger with Tesla will require controlling investor Elon Musk’s approval, even though the entrepreneur has recused himself from talks between his two companies because of conflicts of interest. Musk, the… -
Former Tesla board member on obstacles facing potential SpaceX mergerSteve Westly, founder and managing partner of The Westly Group and a former Tesla board member, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the obstacles facing potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, his take on Tesla's Q3 earnings, and more. Former… -
Elon Musk’s Tesla eyes transportation ‘domination’ as Cybercab expansion heats up competition with WaymoElon Musk’s Tesla is gearing up to expand its gold-colored Cybercab robotaxi service beyond Austin, Tex., next month, with an exec saying the automaker is planning transportation “domination.” The electric car giant plans to deploy its…
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All companies ›Tesla energy deployment in Q1 2027
13.7median
632
Median 13.7Middle half 11.4 – 16.9
Tesla energy deployment in Q4 (energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026)
17.9median
626
Median 17.9Middle half 15.3 – 20.2
Largest Company end of December 2026?
59%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA59%▲ 1
- Apple38%▼ 1
- Alphabet2%
5 more
- Microsoft1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Largest Company end of October 2026?
63%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA63%▲ 4
- Apple36%▼ 3
- Alphabet<1%
6 more
- Microsoft<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Broadcom<1%
- Amazon<1%
- SpaceX<1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
99%October 31
- October 3199%▲ 1
- November 3099%▲ 1
- December 3199%▲ 14
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.