Tesla production in Q1 2027
434,043median
300,000600,000
Median 434,043Middle half 403,289 – 464,706
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Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027
The odds
440,625median
200,000600,000
Median 440,625Middle half 398,077 – 493,605
How the odds have moved
Median: 460,000 on Oct 20, 440,625 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 225000 | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 250000 | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 275000 | 97% | 94¢ | $1.03 | |||
| Above 300,000 | 96% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 5.1K |
| Above 325,000 | 96% | 92¢ | $1.05 | 595 | ||
| Above 350,000 | 87% | ▲ 27 | 83¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 2.1K |
| Above 375,000 | 81% | ▲ 11 | 77¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 2.3K |
| Above 400,000 | 75% | ▼ 1 | 72¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 1.9K |
| Above 425,000 | 60% | ▼ 3 | 56¢ | 64¢ | $1.56 | 1.2K |
| Above 450,000 | 44% | ▲ 17 | 28¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 2.3K |
| Above 475,000 | 41% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 47¢ | $2.13 | 4.7K |
| Above 500,000 | 20% | ▼ 3 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 2.3K |
| Above 525,000 | 10% | 5¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | ||
| Above 550,000 | 6% | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | ||
| Above 575,000 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | $12.50 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Tesla
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All companies ›Tesla energy deployment in Q1 2027
13.4median
632
Median 13.4Middle half 11.1 – 15.7
Tesla energy deployment in Q4 (energy storage deployments (GWh) in Q4 2026)
17.7median
626
Median 17.7Middle half 14.9 – 20.1
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?
>99%chance
Largest Company end of December 2026?
72%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA72%▲ 2
- Apple26%
- Alphabet2%
5 more
- Microsoft<1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Largest Company end of October 2026?
88%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA88%▲ 4
- Apple9%▼ 5
- Alphabet<1%
6 more
- Microsoft<1%
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Broadcom<1%
- Amazon<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.