KalshiMentions › PoliticiansCloses Nov 6 · $5.3K today · $16.9K traded · $12.5K at stake · prices read 23 min ago
The odds
98%Transgender
Transgender98%
Save America Act96%
Dividend / Stimulus93%▲ 3
Stock Market88%▼ 5
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating88%▼ 1
Sleepy Joe86%▲ 1
Insurance84%▼ 3
Hottest83%▲ 7
Made in America / American Made81%
Kamala80%
Barack Hussein Obama76%
Russia / Ukraine74%▼ 6
19 more
Gulf of America73%▼ 9
Iran (5+ times)71%▲ 1
Supreme Court70%
Nuclear (3+ times)63%▲ 6
Israel / Israeli57%▼ 6
Hurricane57%▼ 14
Hormuz54%▲ 8
Blockade42%▼ 3
AI / Artificial Intelligence40%▲ 4
America First35%▲ 10
Data Center31%▲ 10
Drill Baby Drill27%▼ 9
Fentanyl27%▲ 13
Deport / Deported / Deportation25%▼ 3
Fraud (3+ times)18%▼ 2
Ceasefire4%▲ 1
Peace in the Middle East3%▼ 1
Crypto / Bitcoin2%
Event does not qualify2%
How the odds have moved
Transgender: 98% on Oct 20, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Transgender
98%
97¢
98¢
$1.02
3.1K
Save America Act
96%
95¢
96¢
$1.04
5.3K
Dividend / Stimulus
93%
▲ 3
92¢
93¢
$1.08
504
Stock Market
88%
▼ 5
84¢
92¢
$1.09
693
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating
88%
▼ 1
85¢
90¢
$1.11
148
Sleepy Joe
86%
▲ 1
85¢
86¢
$1.16
2.3K
Insurance
84%
▼ 3
79¢
88¢
$1.14
399
Hottest
83%
▲ 7
80¢
85¢
$1.18
858
Made in America / American Made
81%
71¢
84¢
$1.19
123
Kamala
80%
69¢
80¢
$1.25
49.00
Barack Hussein Obama
76%
72¢
80¢
$1.25
266
Russia / Ukraine
74%
▼ 6
64¢
76¢
$1.32
1.5K
Gulf of America
73%
▼ 9
70¢
75¢
$1.33
300
Iran (5+ times)
71%
▲ 1
67¢
74¢
$1.35
357
Supreme Court
70%
59¢
77¢
$1.30
94.00
Nuclear (3+ times)
63%
▲ 6
55¢
70¢
$1.43
104
Israel / Israeli
57%
▼ 6
52¢
62¢
$1.61
174
Hurricane
57%
▼ 14
58¢
72¢
$1.39
160
Hormuz
54%
▲ 8
52¢
56¢
$1.79
893
Blockade
42%
▼ 3
40¢
43¢
$2.33
290
AI / Artificial Intelligence
40%
▲ 4
37¢
43¢
$2.33
440
America First
35%
▲ 10
34¢
36¢
$2.78
646
Data Center
31%
▲ 10
30¢
32¢
$3.13
873
Drill Baby Drill
27%
▼ 9
25¢
29¢
$3.45
106
Fentanyl
27%
▲ 13
24¢
30¢
$3.33
302
Deport / Deported / Deportation
25%
▼ 3
24¢
25¢
$4.00
2.3K
Fraud (3+ times)
18%
▼ 2
17¢
19¢
$5.26
612
Ceasefire
4%
▲ 1
3¢
4¢
$25.00
4.9K
Peace in the Middle East
3%
▼ 1
2¢
3¢
$33.33
2.7K
Crypto / Bitcoin
2%
1¢
2¢
$50.00
4.1K
Event does not qualify
2%
1¢
2¢
$50.00
649
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.