Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.0 – 200.9
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When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
The odds
42%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 1, 202713%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202839%▲ 1
- Before Jan 20, 202942%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 20, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 12% → 17%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 13% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 11.6K |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 39% | ▲ 1 | 36¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 6.7K |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 42% | 40¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 2.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the… -
Melania Trump's advisor reveals how she bridged Putin, Zelenskyy to broker frontline Ukraine truceMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing… -
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised… -
Russia Launches Deadly Missile Barrage on Ukraine Hours After Putin-US TalksOct 22, 2026 at 05:28 AM EDT Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Ukraine just hours after U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff called President Vladimir Putin a "humanitarian" in a face-to-face meeting. Ukraine's Air Force said… -
Putin, citing genetics, claims Ukrainian land ‘is not their territory’A first-time mother of the bride writes to our advice columnists: If she’s contributing money to her daughter’s upcoming nuptials … does she get any influence over whom they invite? Not much has been said about the wedding plans, the… -
Ukraine war latest: Zelensky supports resuming trilateral peace talks with US, Russia after Putin claims Kremlin readinessKey developments on Oct. 21: Witkoff's visit to St. Petersburg follows his Oct. 20 meeting with Zelensky and European allies in Oslo to discuss peace proposals to pass along to the Kremlin. Witkoff described both the Oslo and St… -
First Russian diesel tanker heads to New York after Trump's deal with Putin to lower fuel pricesRetired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro discusses President Donald Trump's diesel deal with Russia as a tanker heads to the US on 'America Reports.' The first tanker with 40,000 tons of diesel left for New York from Russia earlier… -
Zelensky celebrates as Ukraine hits Putin's war factory with British missile and Starlink returnsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is toasting a successful victory after his forceslanded a direct hit on Putin’s war factory using British missiles, according to reports. Video shared from the battlefield appears to show a major… -
Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits shopping center in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, locals sayHelp us keep bringing the truth to light, even when Russia turns the lights out. A massive swarm of Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian border region of Belgorod overnight on Oct. 25, according to local officials and eyewitness footage… -
Ukraine blasts Russian missile-parts plant as drones ground flights in MoscowUkraine hit a key Russian plant that makes components for Moscow’s missiles as a drone swarm disrupted air travel across the Russian capital, grounding flights and forcing an evacuation at a skyscraper housing several government…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions