Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Highest third-party vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
The odds
4.52%high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 4.52%.
- Reaches 2%97%
- Reaches 4%84%
- Reaches 4.5%51%
- Reaches 5%37%
- Reaches 6%25%
- Reaches 8%5%
- Reaches 10%4%
- Reaches 12%4%
How the odds have moved
Reaches 4%: 84% on Oct 19, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2% | 97% | ▼ 1 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 4% | 84% | ▲ 1 | 80¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 66.00 |
| At least 4.5% | 51% | ▼ 1 | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | |
| At least 5% | 37% | ▼ 1 | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | |
| At least 6% | 25% | ▼ 1 | 20¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | |
| At least 8% | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | |
| At least 10% | 4% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| At least 12% | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | ||
| At least 14% | 3% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. Senate, Senate
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Full interview with Don Tracy, Illinois Republican candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago political reporter Chris Tye sat down with former Illinois Republican Party chairman Don Tracy, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, to discuss his candidacy and priorities. Full… -
Full interview with Juliana Stratton, Illinois Democratic candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Full interview with… -
U.S. Senate race spotlight: Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy in IllinoisIn less than two weeks, Illinois voters will decide who will replace longtime U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who is retiring after 30 years in office. The two candidates to replace him, Democratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former… -
Candidates lock in for final sprint in Texas U.S. Senate raceNPR Candidates lock in for final sprint in Texas U.S. Senate race From The Texas Newsroom What issues are bringing individuals to the polls in this key race that could decide the balance of power in Congress? What last minute push is being… -
President Obama supports Angie Nixon for U.S. Senate!Before I ever ran for office, I was an organizer in Duval County, knocking on doors and fighting alongside my neighbors because I was tired of our elected officials leaving us without any support. I started organizing, and then eventually… -
Trump says he ordered lawsuit over Alaska's U.S. Senate racePresident Donald Trump on Friday said he told his administration to file its lawsuit to block certification of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, kicking off what many fear could become a lengthy battle… -
Pat Brady weighs in on Stratton, Tracy Illinois U.S. Senate debateCBS News Pat Brady weighs in on Stratton, Tracy Illinois U.S. Senate debate 2 studies look at health benefits of blueberries, cranberries Gradual warmth continues Wednesday in Chicago St. Charles North High School girls flag football team… -
Examining how increased advance voting benefits Kansas candidates in U.S. Senate raceFrom churches to political rallies, there's a concerted effort to get more Kansans to vote. Pastors from several faiths announced plans Friday to hold marches to the polls on Halloween. The push comes as the Kansas Senate race between… -
U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers visits Traverse City for business forumTRAVERSE CITY — Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers spoke to supporters and Northern Michigan business leaders Friday, 11 days before the closely watched election. Rogers appeared at a forum in Traverse City hosted by the Northern… -
Data center donors pour millions into competitive U.S. Senate racesMost of the money is going to Republicans. Some of the biggest groups supporting Republican U.S. Senate candidates are bankrolled by entities pushing for more data center development. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)… -
VoteHub/Verasight Poll Surveys Texas’s U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial RacesVoteHub partnered with Verasight to poll Texas's midterm contests. The U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests, as well as the statewide generic ballot, all remain close just weeks before the election. The October 2026 VoteHub/Verasight… -
Obama, Trump to campaign in Michigan this weekend as critical U.S. Senate race heats upMICHIGAN — Michigan is once again in the national spotlight, with two presidents making stops in the state this weekend. Former President Barack Obama will campaign in Detroit Saturday, while President Donald Trump heads to Port Huron…
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 2
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate26%▲ 1
- Republicans sweep10%▲ 1
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 2
- Mike Rogers34%▲ 3
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
84%Peggy Flanagan
- Peggy Flanagan84%▲ 1
- Michele Tafoya16%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions