Gambian presidential election winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $162 today · $7.1K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

65%Adama Barrow

Adama Barrow65%▼ 1
Ousainou Darboe19%▲ 1
Talib Bensouda11%▲ 1
Essa Faal2%
Mama Kandeh2%

How the odds have moved

Adama Barrow: 67% on Oct 20, 65% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Adama Barrow	65%	▼ 1	64¢	70¢	$1.43	8.2K
Ousainou Darboe	19%	▲ 1	16¢	22¢	$4.55	8.3K
Talib Bensouda	11%	▲ 1	8¢	15¢	$6.67	121
Essa Faal	2%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	23.00
Mama Kandeh	2%		0¢	5¢	$20.41	49.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gambian, Adama Barrow, Ousainou Darboe

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Gambia to pay victims of Yahya Jammeh's rule from proceeds of his seized US mansionBBC News · 5 days agoJammeh, who is now living in exile in Equatorial Guinea, ruled The Gambia for more than 20 years The Gambia will use funds received from the US from the forfeiture of long-time ruler Yahya Jammeh's property to pay victims of his rule…
EU readies for Gambian poll contest@cajnewsafrica · 5 days agoFormer Gambia deputy president, Ousainou Darboe from EMEKA OKONKWO in Abuja, Nigeria Nigeria Bureau ABUJA, (CAJ News) – THE European Union (EU) is to deploy an Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) to The Gambia ahead of the December 5…
Gambia Presidential Election Is on Saturday 5 DecemberThe Rio Times · 6 days agoThe Gambia presidential election takes place on Saturday 5 December 2026, and President Adama Barrow is seeking a third term. For US readers, it is a key test for a small West African democracy that ended Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year rule in…
The Gambia to pay victims of ex-ruler Yahya Jammeh with proceeds from seized US mansionBusiness · 4 days agoBy: Nana Karikari, Senior Global Affairs Correspondent The Gambia will compensate victims of former ruler Yahya Jammeh’s regime using funds recovered from the asset forfeiture and sale of his luxury property in the United States. Gambian…
Gambia recovers $2.5m from Jammeh’s US mansion to fund reparationsChannel Africa · 5 days agoChannel Africa Gambia recovers $2.5m from Jammeh’s US mansion to fund reparations The Gambian government has received $2.5 million following the forfeiture and sale of a luxury estate in the United States (US) previously owned by former…
Gambia To Pay Jammeh’s Victims $2.57m Recovered From US MansionTrending News · 5 days agoWed Oct 21, 2026 October 21, 2026 3:52 PM GMT+1 The Gambia will use $2.57 million recovered from the sale of a mansion owned by former President Yahya Jammeh in the United States to compensate victims of human rights abuses during his…
Gambia to use $2.5 mn from US to compensate ex-dictator's victimsCitizen Digital · 5 days agoJammeh's two decades in power from 1994 to 2017 were stained by rights abuses, and the eccentric ex-leader is accused of syphoning millions of dollars in state funds for his personal use. The US Justice Department had announced in…
Gambia To Compensate Victims Of Ex-President Jammeh’s Rule With $2.57m Recovered From US Mansion Sale | Sahara ReportersSahara Reporters · 5 days agoThe Gambian government will use $2.57 million recovered from the sale of a mansion belonging to former President Yahya Jammeh in the United States to compensate victims of his rule. The Gambia’s Reparations Commission said it had received…
US Returns $2.5 Million to Gambia for Ex-Dictator’s Victims@NewsCentralTV · 5 days agoThe Gambia has confirmed on Tuesday that it received $2.5 million returned by the United States from the sale of former dictator Yahya Jammeh’s mansion, and said the money would go to victims of his rule. Jammeh’s two decades in power from…
Funds from sale of former Gambian ruler's US property to be used to compensate victimsThe Washington Post · 6 days agoThe Washington Post Gambian authorities have received funds from the sale of a U.S. property owned by former ruler Yahya Jammeh SERREKUNDA, Gambia — Gambian authorities said Tuesday that they had received funds recovered from the…
Gambia to pay Jammeh's victims $2.5m from US mansion saleStreamline · 5 days agoThe Gambia says $2.5 million recovered from the US sale of Yahya Jammeh's Potomac mansion will fund reparations for victims of his 22-year rule. The Gambia will use $2.5 million recovered from the United States sale of a mansion owned by…
The Gambia will use sale of former ruler's Maryland mansion to compensate his victimsWJLA · 4 days agoby ABDOULIE JOHN Associated Press The Gambia Reparations Commission said it received $2,573,414.10 from the sale of a mansion in Potomac, Maryland, owned by the former ruler of the tiny West African nation. The U.S. Department of State had…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onIndependent Electoral Commission

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$7.1K (16,753 contracts)

Today$162

This week$475

At stake$2.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the winner of the next Gambian presidential election is Adama Barrow, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions