Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 174.1 – 201.4
Install
Sanae Takaichi announces departure as Prime Minister of Japan? (Before Jan 2029)
The odds
30%Before Jan 1, 2029
- Before Jul 1, 20274%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20288%
- Before Jul 1, 202815%
- Before Jan 1, 202930%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 19, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | ||
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 15% | 11¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 30% | 26¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi
Search ›-
Sanae Takaichi took on Japan’s male-dominated politics and won – can she survive a second year in power?The straight-talking PM’s ability to manage Trump and stand up to China have endeared her to the public, but she may need friends closer to home to survive The visitors squeezed into the kiosk near Japan’s national diet building snap up… -
Sanae Takaichi has made Japan impossible to ignoreThe Japan Times For a leader often accused of dodging the press, thereâs one ironic thing about Sanae Takaichi: Sheâs front-page material.Since becoming Japanâs first female prime minister a year ago, she has divided opinion in a way… -
One year on, Sanae Takaichi’s big promises face reality check in JapanLast October, Sanae Takaichi became the first woman to stand at the lectern of Japan’s parliamentary hall as prime minister. Now, the test is whether she can deliver on her promises. Over the past twelve months, Takaichi has proved to be… -
Defence, debt, diplomacy: Sanae Takaichi's first year as Japan PMDefence, debt, diplomacy: Takaichi's first year as Japan PM Jaishankar thanks Rubio for 26/11 tribute, calls for zero tolerance on terror India clocking 7.2% growth despite West Asia conflict: Rajnath Singh US targets $500bn bilateral… -
"Demanding 300 Million Won Is Telling Us to Leave": Why a Korean Business Owner in Tokyo Wept[Choi Seok-jin / Restaurant Owner: Tears just come to my eyes. Even so, I am just so grateful that our regular customers keep coming every day because we are closing down.] Yet, if you visit regions anchored in manufacturing, they are… -
Hacking attempts rise after flaws found in program affecting 70 percent of websitesA few months ago AI caused global alarm after autonomous agents were found to have cheated on evaluations and then tried to cover it up, in what became known as the "Hugging Face hack." This week, AI and hacking are back in the spotlight… -
Can Japan’s firebrand PM survive a second year in power? – Full Story podcastOne year ago, Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister, taking over a party in crisis. Since then, she’s defied the doubters, not just surviving as leader in a country that struggles with its gender politics – but winning… -
Kyodo News Digest: Oct. 24, 2026Japan's revised law to maintain imperial family size takes effect TOKYO - A revised Imperial House Law took effect Saturday to address Japan's shrinking imperial family while retaining the traditional male-only succession system despite… -
Japan to arrange $6.35b in private investment in Bangladesh: ReportSaturday October 24, 2026 Japan is expected to arrange private-sector investments worth 1 trillion yen, equivalent to around $6.35 billion, in Bangladesh over the next five years, according to a report published by Japan's Nikkei Asia… -
Russia Holds Japanese Journalist In Moscow Prison As Bilateral Tensions Reach Boiling PointBy David Prior | Oct 24, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics Japan’s Foreign Ministry dispatched officials to Moscow this week in an urgent bid to make contact with journalist Yuki Imai, arrested by Russia’s FSB security service on… -
Japanese protesters rally against Takaichi goverment's military buildup, constitutional revisionMany Japanese citizens staged a protest rally Wednesday evening in front of the National Diet in Tokyo, opposing the military buildup and constitutional revision drive of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government and calling for the… -
Japan gov't announces Vietnam leader To Lam to make 4-day visit from Nov. 8TOKYO - Vietnamese President To Lam will make a four-day visit to Japan from Nov. 8 for talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the top Japanese government spokesman said Friday. Lam, who heads Vietnam's ruling Communist Party, and his…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions