Taiwan Local Elections winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Nov 28, 2027 · $5 today · $6.5K traded · $2.5K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

66%Kuomintang

Kuomintang66%
Democratic Progressive Party28%▼ 2
Taiwan People’s Party2%

How the odds have moved

Kuomintang: 66% on Oct 20, 66% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Kuomintang	66%		64¢	67¢	$1.49	8.0K
Democratic Progressive Party	28%	▼ 2	26¢	30¢	$3.33	4.5K
Taiwan People’s Party	2%			4¢	$25.00	107

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan, Taiwan Local

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China accused of six tactics to interfere in Taiwans local electionsNews18 · 4 days agoTaipei [Taiwan], October 22 (ANI): Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) has accused the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of employing six tactics to influence Taiwan’s upcoming nine-in-one local elections, including allegedly using…
Kevin Tsai says he has never supported Taiwan independence台北時報 · 28 h agoTelevision host Kevin Tsai (蔡康永) last night broke his silence over a controversy surrounding his appearance at a campaign event for Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋), saying he had never supported Taiwan…
Taiwanese Comedian’s Assault Case Raises Alarm Over China’s Transnational RepressionThe Epoch Times · 3 days agoTaiwanese prosecutors have indicted five men accused of helping a Chinese national orchestrate an attack on comedian Huang Yi-hao in an alleged attempt to stop him from performing material mocking Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Huang, 44…
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to China@ChinaDailyApp · 32 h agoOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering…
People's Daily Blasts Taiwan's Rejection of a Mainland Star's Fan-Meeting VisaTrending on Weibo · 4 days agoMainland actor Zhang Linghe applied to hold fan meetings in Taiwan and was refused — and People's Daily turned the rejection into a sweeping editorial about cross-strait culture, pairing it with Jay Chou's 'I am Chinese' moment. Stay…
Puma Shen’s Surge In Taiwan Recalls Mamdani Rise In NY, Raises StakesForbes · 3 days ago“You would assume Chiang would be on a glide path to victory,” said the Washington, D.C.-headquartered Brookings Institution’s China and Taiwan expert Ryan Hass in a recent interview. “There are some parallels to the Mamdani-Cuomo election…
Taiwan to deny officials permission to travel to Beijing — South China Morning PostUA.NEWS · 4 days agoTaiwan to deny officials Beijing travel permits — SCMP UA.NEWS Taiwan to deny officials permission to travel to Beijing — South China Morning Post In Taiwan, the Mainland Affairs Council will deny officials permission to travel to Beijing…
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandNTD · 2 days agoChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters…
Russia Trains China’s Army for Taiwan While Beijing Fuels Moscow’s WarThe Gateway Pundit · 27 h agoRussia is training Chinese soldiers in drone warfare and urban combat and has agreed to equip and train a battalion of Chinese paratroopers, while China supplies 90 percent of the sanctioned technology entering Russia. “For decades, Russia…
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionNews18 · 39 h agoTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming…
October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanFakti.bg · 32 h agoOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
Taiwan Scholars Warn Chinese Election Interference Aims to Erode Trust in DemocracyVision Times · 5 days agoHome » World » Taiwan Scholars Warn Chinese Election Interference Aims to Erode Trust in Democracy Taiwanese scholars warned that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) election interference is designed not only to influence individual races but…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCentral Election Commission (CEC)

Trading closesNov 28, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$6.5K (12,639 contracts)

Today$5

This week$162

At stake$2.5K

In the news171 headlines today, 1,949 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Kuomintang wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions