Swiss Federal Council by-election winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Dec 9, 2027 · $21 traded · $21 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

23%Céline Amaudruz

Céline Amaudruz23%▲ 1
Pascal Schmid13%▲ 1
Natalie Rickli9%▲ 1
André Rüegsegger8%▲ 1
Jean-Pierre Gallati7%▲ 1
Nicolas Kolly6%▲ 1
Thomas Aeschi5%▲ 1
Yvan Pahud5%▲ 1
Pierre-Alain Schnegg5%▲ 1
Franz Grüter5%▲ 1
Mike Egger4%
Thomas Matter3%

1 more

Michael Götte3%

How the odds have moved

Céline Amaudruz: 23% on Oct 19, 23% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Céline Amaudruz	23%	▲ 1	18¢	27¢	$3.70
Pascal Schmid	13%	▲ 1	9¢	17¢	$5.88	6.00
Natalie Rickli	9%	▲ 1	5¢	13¢	$7.69	221
André Rüegsegger	8%	▲ 1	3¢	12¢	$8.33
Jean-Pierre Gallati	7%	▲ 1	2¢	11¢	$9.09
Nicolas Kolly	6%	▲ 1	1¢	10¢	$10.00
Thomas Aeschi	5%	▲ 1	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Yvan Pahud	5%	▲ 1	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Pierre-Alain Schnegg	5%	▲ 1	1¢	9¢	$11.11
Franz Grüter	5%	▲ 1	1¢	8¢	$12.50
Mike Egger	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67
Thomas Matter	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00
Michael Götte	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Swiss Federal Council, Céline Amaudruz, Pascal Schmid

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Céline Amaudruz Enters Race to Succeed Guy Parmelin on Swiss Federal CouncilStreamline · 11 days agohttps://streamlinefeed.co.ke/ The political landscape in Switzerland has shifted following the announcement that Céline Amaudruz will officially enter the race to succeed Guy Parmelin on the Swiss Federal Council. The 47-year-old Geneva…
Only One Romand Left in the Federal Council? Baume-Schneider Puts Pressure on the SVPbluewin.ch · 9 days agoSP Federal Councilor Baume-Schneider would be the only French-speaking Swiss member of the federal government if Parmelin were succeeded by someone from German-speaking Switzerland or Ticino. Who will succeed Guy Parmelin? For Federal…
Geneva native Céline Amaudruz enters the race to succeed Parmelinbluewin.ch · 11 days agoblue News Geneva native Céline Amaudruz enters the race to succeed Parmelin SVP Vice President and Geneva National Council member Céline Amaudruz wants to become a Federal Councilor. She announced this to the media on Thursday morning in…
UK–EU “Switzerland Plus” Deal: Could Britain Return to the Single Market Without Rejoining?Diplomacy and Law · 10 days ago“Switzerland Plus” describes a possible framework for closer UK–EU relations based on Switzerland's extensive bilateral agreements with the European Union. It is not an existing treaty, an agreed negotiating mandate, or a formal offer from…
Switzerland plans to tighten rules for major online platforms — Anadolu AgencyUA.NEWS · 10 days agoThe Swiss Federal Council plans to introduce stricter rules for major communication platforms and search engines in order to strengthen the protection of minors in the digital environment. Under the proposed legislation, major platforms…
Delegation led by Ignazio Cassis visits Armenian Genocide MemorialArmenpress · 11 days agoArmenpress Delegation led by Ignazio Cassis visits Armenian Genocide Memorial A delegation led by Ignazio Cassis, Vice President of the Swiss Federal Council, Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and OSCE…
"I'm stunned": When asked this question, Amaudruz lets her anger run freebluewin.ch · 11 days agoCéline Amaudruz, an SVP National Council member from Geneva, wants to succeed Guy Parmelin on the Federal Council. When announcing her candidacy, she emphasized French-speaking Switzerland’s right to a seat. She also reacted sharply to the…
Bahrain-Swiss investor protections before ParliamentStreamline · 11 days agohttps://streamlinefeed.co.ke/ Bahraini and Swiss investors would gain the right to challenge asset seizures and seek damages from host governments through international arbitration under a bilateral treaty sent to Parliament for…
Swiss President to pay official visit to Viet Nam this weeken.baochinhphu.vn · 11 days agoSOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIET NAM The visit will be made at the invitation of General Secretary and President To Lam and his spouse. During his visit to Ha Noi, President Parmelin is expected to hold talks with General Secretary and President…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Assembly of Switzerland

Trading closesDec 9, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$21 (227 contracts)

At stake$21

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Céline Amaudruz wins the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions