Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
31%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20267%▲ 2
- June 30, 202718%▼ 6
- December 31, 202731%▼ 7
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Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?
The odds
20%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 20% on Oct 20, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 97.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: SpaceX, Mars
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Japan launches mission to Mars’ moons | CNNJapan launched a spacecraft towards the two Martian moons, Phobos and Deimos, to collect samples and return them to Earth. The newly built Shanghai Grand Opera House looks gravity-defying and its design has taken inspiration from an… -
SpaceX’s AI business is beating expectationsBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. SpaceX’s data centers and Grok agents have been more profitable than investors expected in second quarter of the year, as the company leaves its roots as a space company… -
Dominic Fike, Ashe, Bruno Mars & More: Highlights of This Week’s Billboard ChartsAll of Billboard's charts update each Tuesday. Tuesday is new Billboard chart day each week! As all charts update each Tuesday, here’s a look at highlights of the latest rankings, dated Oct. 24 and reflecting the Oct. 9-15 measurement… -
Japan launches historic MMX sample-return mission to Mars' moon Phobos"We'll still find the happenin' hot spots, we'll still cruise the cool casinos. You'll still fly me to the moon, although the moon to which you'll fly me could be Phobos or Deimos…" 🎶 Japan's groundbreaking mission to Mars is officially… -
Where to See ‘Space Jellyfish’ From SpaceX Launch TodayOct 20, 2026 at 05:59 AM EDT Oct 20, 2026 at 06:20 AM EDT Residents across parts of Florida could be treated to an unusual sight in the predawn sky on Tuesday as SpaceX prepares to launch its Bandwagon-5 mission from Cape Canaveral Space… -
Options Action: SpaceX, Netflix report after bellCNBC Options Action: SpaceX, Netflix report after bell -
Mission blasts off for Mars to grab a piece of its moonWatch: Spacecraft heading to Mars' moon Phobos lifts off from Japan A spacecraft has launched from Japan headed for Mars' moon Phobos, where it will attempt to grab some moondust and bring it back to Earth. If it is successful, this will… -
Options Action: Traders split on SpaceX earningsCNBC Options Action: Traders split on SpaceX earnings -
Elon Musk says Tesla-SpaceX merger being consideredElon Musk is the top executive of both Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk has said he likes the idea of a merger of Tesla and SpaceX, two of his most notable companies, and it is under active consideration. "Do I think it would be a good idea?… -
Speculation grows over potential Tesla-SpaceX mergerR 'Ray' Wang analyzes rumors of a potential stock swap merger between Tesla and SpaceX. He explains how the dual-class voting structure of SpaceX would allow Elon Musk to retain majority control with fewer shares. Stuart Varney hosts the… -
SpaceX says big AI growth fueled revenue jumpSpaceX announced revenues of $7.6 billion for its ‘SI’ business in its Q3 2026 earnings. SpaceX announced revenues of $14.6 billion in its Q3 earnings on Tuesday, which it says was a growth of 161 percent year-over-year “fueled by our… -
Options Action: SpaceX reports earnings after the bellCNBC Options Action: SpaceX reports earnings after the bell
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All space ›Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
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2 more
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How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 24, 2026 (Vercel)
9.22%median
4.4%25.9%
Median 9.22%Middle half 8.88% – 9.55%
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$922.12Bmedian
$600B$1.3T
Median $922.12BMiddle half $845.67B – $972.68B
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
76%November 30, 2026
- November 30, 202676%▲ 9
- Chopsticks catch Starship?69%▼ 9
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?66%▼ 4
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- Super Heavy booster explodes?40%▲ 1
- Successful splash down?25%
- November 15, 202620%▲ 8
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.