Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)

Kalshi Finance › Indexes Closes Dec 31 · $801 traded · $776 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

98%Twilio
  • Twilio98%
  • Cheniere Energy30%
  • Astera Labs27%
  • Okta19%
  • Credo Technology13%
  • Affirm Holdings12%
  • Southern Copper9%
  • LPL Financial9%
  • ATI9%
  • Tradeweb Markets9%
  • Rocket Companies9%
  • Venture Global9%
23 more
  • TPG9%
  • Snowflake9%
  • Atlassian9%
  • Natera9%
  • BWX Technologies8%
  • Guidewire Software8%
  • Talen Energy8%
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals8%
  • HEICO7%
  • MongoDB7%
  • Curtiss-Wright7%
  • Toast7%
  • Duolingo7%
  • Cloudflare7%
  • Zoom7%
  • SoFi6%
  • Circle Internet Group6%
  • Roblox6%
  • SpaceX6%
  • CoreWeave4%
  • Medline2%
  • Strategy (MicroStrategy)2%
  • Cerebras2%

How the odds have moved

Twilio: 98% on Oct 19, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Twilio 98% 96¢ $1.02 400
Cheniere Energy 30% 25¢ 34¢ $2.94 304
Astera Labs 27% 26¢ 27¢ $3.70 387
Okta 19% 12¢ $5.26 280
Credo Technology 13% 11¢ 15¢ $6.67 220
Affirm Holdings 12% 8¢ 15¢ $6.67 157
Southern Copper 9% 5¢ 13¢ $7.69
LPL Financial 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
ATI 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69 182
Tradeweb Markets 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Rocket Companies 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Venture Global 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
TPG 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Snowflake 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Atlassian 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
Natera 9% 4¢ 13¢ $7.69
BWX Technologies 8% 4¢ 12¢ $8.33
Guidewire Software 8% 4¢ 12¢ $8.33
Talen Energy 8% 4¢ 12¢ $8.33
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals 8% 5¢ 10¢ $10.00 104
HEICO 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 150
MongoDB 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 119
Curtiss-Wright 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 3.00
Toast 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 1.00
Duolingo 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00
Cloudflare 7% 4¢ 10¢ $10.00 531
Zoom 7% 3¢ 10¢ $10.00 33.00
SoFi 6% 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 107
Circle Internet Group 6% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50
Roblox 6% 2¢ 10¢ $10.00 201
SpaceX 6% 2¢ 9¢ $11.11 300
CoreWeave 4% 8¢ $12.50
Medline 2% 4¢ $25.00
Strategy (MicroStrategy) 2% 4¢ $25.00 17.00
Cerebras 2% 4¢ $25.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: S&P 500, stocks, Cheniere Energy

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions