SOFR for October 19, 2026

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closed today 7:59 AM ET · $264 today · $264 traded · $264 at stake

Settled Exactly 3.87%A day before, traders had a median of 3.86%

The last odds before it closed

3.86%median

✓ Exactly 3.87%—
3.85% or Below26%
Exactly 3.86%26%
Exactly 3.90%26%
3.91% or Above21%
Exactly 3.88%—
Exactly 3.89%—

How the odds have moved

Median: 3.86% on Oct 19, 3.86% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✗ 3.85% or Below	26%
✗ Exactly 3.86%	26%
✓ Exactly 3.87%	—
✗ Exactly 3.88%	—
✗ Exactly 3.89%	—
✗ Exactly 3.90%	26%
✗ 3.91% or Above	21%	5.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: SOFR

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Related markets

All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

SOFR for October 20, 2026

3.86%median

3.85%3.92%

Median 3.86%Middle half 3.85% – 3.91%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

86%No change

No change86%▲ 2
25 bps increase13%▼ 1
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

57%No change

No change57%▼ 7
25 bps increase38%▲ 4
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

80%Fed maintains rate

Fed maintains rate80%▲ 3
Hike 25bps15%▲ 2
Cut >25bps4%▲ 4

2 more

Cut 25bps2%▼ 2
Hike >25bps1%▲ 1

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 1
No change19%
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Bank of New York

Trading closedOct 20, 2026 7:59 AM ET

Traded$264 (5,870 contracts)

Today$264

This week$264

At stake$264

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) for October 19, 2026 is at most 3.85%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.942+0.26%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,722.28+0.41%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.080+0.12%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.30−0.02%
SPYSPY · moves with it769.64+0.41%
TLTTLT · moves with it80.02+0.70%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.