Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.4 – 200.9
Install
Will Turkey announce a snap election before Jan 2, 2027?
The odds
5%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 193 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Turkey
Search ›-
Coal mine blast in northern Turkey kills 3, leaves 5 hurtBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A methane gas… - Carney’s next stop: TurkeyA daily look inside Canadian politics and power. By ZI-ANN LUM and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY 10/22/2026 06:02 AM EDT Send tips | Email Canada Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading our Playbook. — The PM’s search for new allies…
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Thousands protest crackdown on media in TurkeyThousands rallied in Istanbul and Ankara yesterday against what they described as growing pressure on journalists in Turkey, including arrests, media shutdowns and the appointment of state administrators. Press freedom has been… -
Big Chill Between Turkey and AzerbaijanDiplomatic relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan have deteriorated sharply following an address by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev asserting sovereign independence, which Ankara has interpreted as a rebuke of Turkish influence. The… -
Journalists protest censorship in 10 Turkish citiesISTANBUL — Journalists, press organizations and supporting unions protested censorship in 10 Turkish cities on October 24, 2026, demanding the release of imprisoned colleagues and an end to pressure on news reporting, BBC News Türkçe… -
Thousands protest in Turkey against pressure on independent mediaSunday October 25, 2026 Thousands of people, including journalists, human rights activists and opposition representatives, gathered in Istanbul and Ankara on Saturday to protest against state pressure on independent media in Turkey. Press… -
Carney tours Kariye Mosque in Istanbul before departing TurkeyPosted October 24, 2026 2:56 am. ISTANBUL — After three days spent fostering tighter economic and political ties with Turkey, Prime Minister Mark Carney is on his way home to Ottawa. Carney closed out his trip earlier this morning by… -
Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probeTurkey jails 15 more in fund scandal, taking total to 114 IMF finds Turkey wealth fund omits audit from website disclosures Turkey jails opposition mayor, son in corruption probe Goldman Sachs warns Turkey’s $30 billion reserve loss could… -
Thousands protest in Turkey over journalists' arrests, media shutdownsIstanbul (AFP) – Thousands rallied in Istanbul and Ankara on Saturday against what they described as growing pressure on journalists in Turkey, including arrests, media shutdowns and the appointment of state administrators. Issued on… -
Turkey Calls on Greece to Recognise Elected Muftis in ThraceIn a statement issued on October 24, 2026, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry criticised Greece’s appointment process for muftis in Komotini and Xanthi, arguing that it disregards fundamental rights protected by the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and… -
Turkish army team wins first international military drone competitionThe Turkish Land Forces' first team won the International Best Military Drone Team Competition (BIMDTC-2026), the first event of its kind, beating Pakistan, Italy and France in the final in Ankara on Saturday. Chief of General Staff Gen… -
Turkish Naval Forces test Barkan UGV in amphibious raidThe Turkish Naval Forces used HAVELSAN’s Barkan unmanned ground vehicle to support amphibious raid and urban warfare training and then to evacuate simulated wounded personnel during TURNAs-2026, the service’s unmanned maritime systems…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions