Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%▼ 4
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%▲ 4
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Serbian parliamentary election winner? (2026)
The odds
55%Student list
- Student list55%▲ 28
- SNS-led list45%▼ 27
How the odds have moved
Student list: 29% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 10 AM ETStudent list: 26% → 55%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETStudent list: 25% → 32%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Student list | 55% | ▲ 28 | 53¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 55.5K |
| SNS-led list | 45% | ▼ 27 | 43¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 23.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Serbian
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European student protests take aim at Serbia's electionsStudents have been protesting across Europe. In Serbia, they've selected candidates to run for parliament in Sunday's elections. And they're aiming to end 14 years of government by the populist leader Aleksandar Vucic. European student… -
Thousands of Serbian Americans to vote in critical parliamentary electionFor two years now, Serbia has seen mass protests led by young people demanding change after a decade and a half under the increasingly authoritarian rule of Aleksandar Vucic. They are demanding political change, with many students running… -
Student movement takes Serbia's Vučić to the wire in neck-and-neck electionIf Sunday's parliamentary elections really are a battle for the heart of Serbia, then who better than a cardiologist to be one of the leading figures in the race. Ilija Srdanović appears an unlikely opponent for Serbia's long-serving… -
How a leaderless student movement could topple Serbia’s autocratBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Gazela Pudar Drasko is… -
Serbia’s longtime leader faces biggest political test as students mount election challengeAleksandar Vucic says Serbia is deepening ties with Washington while balancing relations with Russia and China, standing by Israel and resisting calls to recognize Kosovo. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic resigned from the presidency in… -
Friday briefing: How a leaderless student group is challenging power in SerbiaIn today’s newsletter: Born from the fury surrounding the deadly Novi Sad station collapse, Serbia’s Student List has taken its protests all the way to the elections in an unprecedented grassroots campaign Good morning. As waves of… -
Massive student-led rally marches in Belgrade ahead of Serbian electionStudent List movement hopes to oust the party of veteran leader Aleksandar Vucic in a pivotal vote on Sunday Explained: what’s at stake in Serbia’s election? The key players, main issues and potential fallout About 150,000 supporters of… -
A tense election in Serbia will decide if a student movement can topple populist leader VucicVoters in Serbia will decide in a tense parliamentary ballot this weekend whether to extend the 14-year rule of Russia-backed populist strongman Aleksandar Vucic or back a youth movement behind nearly two years of protests seeking… -
Huge crowds gather at final pre-election rally of Serbia's studentsThe Washington Post Hundreds of thousands of supporters of Serbia’s protesting students have gathered for the final campaign rally ahead of the tense parliamentary election on weekend in a mounting challenge to the Balkan country’s… -
What are the key issues in Serbia’s election – and its potential consequences?Polls on 25 October could bring a new political landscape in EU-candidate country where a student-led protest movement has become main opposition Serbia’s 6.5 million voters go to the polls on 25 October in a watershed parliamentary… -
Why a student protest movement is challenging 12 years of Vučić rule in SerbiaYoung Serbians have been the driving force behind the movement, but none of the candidates are students Rallies have been taking place across Serbia on Thursday, the final day of campaigning ahead of a snap election billed as a referendum… -
Serbia Votes as Students Challenge VučićSerbians are voting on Sunday 25 October in a snap parliamentary election that pits President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp against a student-led list born of nearly two years of protests. Follow every development in our Serbia Election…
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Brazil Presidential election winner?
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions